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Reliability assessment of onshore pipelines based on Bayesian inference ; Zuverlässigkeitsbewertung von Onshore-Pipelines auf der Grundlage von Bayes`schen Schlussfolgerungen
Reliability assessment of pipeline failure factors has become a major concern for industrial firms involved in the transmission of oil and gas, where the requirement to limit these failure factors and their consequences, such as maintenance costs, is particularly significant. Pipelines were constructed throughout time to include safety precautions in order to offer a theoretical minimal failure rate for the pipeline's whole life. This strategy also includes the management of various failure causes as well as routine-based maintenance to assure the dependability of pipelines during their service life. However, the requirement to reduce the impact of these failure factors on pipelines has bolstered the use of reliability evaluation of failure factors on petroleum pipelines. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the reliability of oil pipelines in Nigeria, with emphasis on proposing operational and technical changes to enhance their resilience against unexpected failures. The thesis uses the regular Poisson, empirical, and compound Poisson processes to describe the number of common failure causes owing to corrosion, third-party damage, mechanically induced failure, operational mistakes, and natural hazards in repairable systems. The statistical analysis results serve as the foundation for time to failure modeling of petroleum pipelines utilizing Bayesian inference of the three-parameter Exponentiated Weibull distribution. The thesis also includes reliability probabilistic methods for assessing the influence of uncertainties in pipelines by comparing the First order reliability method (FORM) with the Second order reliability method (SORM) with demonstration on five distinct petroleum pipelines. The probability of failure and the reliability index for the five pipelines were calculated, along with the target reliability. Additionally, the influence of specific pipeline design parameters on the probability of failure was analyzed through sensitivity analysis. This analysis helps identify which design factors have ...
Reliability assessment of onshore pipelines based on Bayesian inference ; Zuverlässigkeitsbewertung von Onshore-Pipelines auf der Grundlage von Bayes`schen Schlussfolgerungen
Reliability assessment of pipeline failure factors has become a major concern for industrial firms involved in the transmission of oil and gas, where the requirement to limit these failure factors and their consequences, such as maintenance costs, is particularly significant. Pipelines were constructed throughout time to include safety precautions in order to offer a theoretical minimal failure rate for the pipeline's whole life. This strategy also includes the management of various failure causes as well as routine-based maintenance to assure the dependability of pipelines during their service life. However, the requirement to reduce the impact of these failure factors on pipelines has bolstered the use of reliability evaluation of failure factors on petroleum pipelines. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the reliability of oil pipelines in Nigeria, with emphasis on proposing operational and technical changes to enhance their resilience against unexpected failures. The thesis uses the regular Poisson, empirical, and compound Poisson processes to describe the number of common failure causes owing to corrosion, third-party damage, mechanically induced failure, operational mistakes, and natural hazards in repairable systems. The statistical analysis results serve as the foundation for time to failure modeling of petroleum pipelines utilizing Bayesian inference of the three-parameter Exponentiated Weibull distribution. The thesis also includes reliability probabilistic methods for assessing the influence of uncertainties in pipelines by comparing the First order reliability method (FORM) with the Second order reliability method (SORM) with demonstration on five distinct petroleum pipelines. The probability of failure and the reliability index for the five pipelines were calculated, along with the target reliability. Additionally, the influence of specific pipeline design parameters on the probability of failure was analyzed through sensitivity analysis. This analysis helps identify which design factors have ...
Reliability assessment of onshore pipelines based on Bayesian inference ; Zuverlässigkeitsbewertung von Onshore-Pipelines auf der Grundlage von Bayes`schen Schlussfolgerungen
Osagie, Christian (author)
2024-05-22
Theses
Electronic Resource
English
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