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Modelling forest fire spread using Cellular Automata ; Modellering av skogsbrannspredning ved bruk av cellular automata
Master of Science in Fire Safety Engineering, Department of Fire Safety and HSE engineering ; Forest fires are common events that have been a part of the human race since 1.5 millions years BP. Despite forest fires being a natural part of our environment, many consider them problematic due to the perception of a rising occurrence, severity and losses. With higher global temperatures, forest fires are predicted to increase around the globe, negatively affecting the risk of lives, health and infrastructure. In an environment where the forest fire risk increases, mitigating and preventive actions are required and this thesis focus on the mitigating actions of fire fighting operations in Sweden, and the possibility of predicting fire spread using simulation tools. A simulation tool using Cellular automata was developed using a probabilistic mathematical model by Alexandrisis et al. [21], including an additional parameter for the Fire Weather Index to account for fuel moisture levels. The cellular automata is a 2D grid consisting of a number of cells distributed in a matrix form and the tool simulates fire spread between the cells based on a number of rules and cell states. The software development has focused on minimizing user input to enable operational use and automatically gathers data (weather, Fire Weather Index, elevation, land-use etc.) through Geographic Information Systems such as Google Maps and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). When using the tool the user specifies a geographical location (latitude and longitude) for the fire starting point and the date/time. The results are exported to a .csv datafile that is imported and visualized using Kepler.gl. As a part of the thesis a software proof-of-concept was developed and tested through three steps. The first step verifies the fundamental functions of the software, testing fire spread without external factors, with wind, and with slope to ensure that all parameters are working as intended. Additionally the Fire Weather Index ...
Modelling forest fire spread using Cellular Automata ; Modellering av skogsbrannspredning ved bruk av cellular automata
Master of Science in Fire Safety Engineering, Department of Fire Safety and HSE engineering ; Forest fires are common events that have been a part of the human race since 1.5 millions years BP. Despite forest fires being a natural part of our environment, many consider them problematic due to the perception of a rising occurrence, severity and losses. With higher global temperatures, forest fires are predicted to increase around the globe, negatively affecting the risk of lives, health and infrastructure. In an environment where the forest fire risk increases, mitigating and preventive actions are required and this thesis focus on the mitigating actions of fire fighting operations in Sweden, and the possibility of predicting fire spread using simulation tools. A simulation tool using Cellular automata was developed using a probabilistic mathematical model by Alexandrisis et al. [21], including an additional parameter for the Fire Weather Index to account for fuel moisture levels. The cellular automata is a 2D grid consisting of a number of cells distributed in a matrix form and the tool simulates fire spread between the cells based on a number of rules and cell states. The software development has focused on minimizing user input to enable operational use and automatically gathers data (weather, Fire Weather Index, elevation, land-use etc.) through Geographic Information Systems such as Google Maps and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). When using the tool the user specifies a geographical location (latitude and longitude) for the fire starting point and the date/time. The results are exported to a .csv datafile that is imported and visualized using Kepler.gl. As a part of the thesis a software proof-of-concept was developed and tested through three steps. The first step verifies the fundamental functions of the software, testing fire spread without external factors, with wind, and with slope to ensure that all parameters are working as intended. Additionally the Fire Weather Index ...
Modelling forest fire spread using Cellular Automata ; Modellering av skogsbrannspredning ved bruk av cellular automata
Folkesson, Nils Emil Joakim (author)
2022-01-01
Theses
Electronic Resource
English
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