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Dependency of forecasting accuracy for balancing power supply by weather-dependent renewable energy sources
The share of renewable energies in the national electricity generation systems is increasing worldwide, recently especially weather-dependent wind and solar power plays a substantial role. These energy sources are characterized by a fluctuating and imprecise predictable power generation, which increase the need of flexibilities within the remaining electricity systems (e.g., conventional power plants) to guarantee a high security of supply. Nowadays, these flexibilities are primarily provided by power plants based on fossil fuel energy. In future, these conventional power plants will increasingly displaced by an increasing renewable power supply. Thus, also weather-dependent renewable energy systems like windmills and PV systems need to contribute to the provision of balancing energy. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to analyse technical and energy economic conditions allowing weather-dependent renewable energy sources to contribute in markets for balancing energy and to estimate the scale of this contribution in a given energy system. As a basis, the day-ahead forecasting quality of the feed-in from wind park systems in Germany is analysed, to estimate the share of the wind power generation, which can be safely predicted for the following day. Based on probabilistic methods and the investigated results the theoretical potential of balancing energy delivered by wind mill systems can be calculated for a given supply area as well as for a defined degree of the security of electricity supply.
Dependency of forecasting accuracy for balancing power supply by weather-dependent renewable energy sources
The share of renewable energies in the national electricity generation systems is increasing worldwide, recently especially weather-dependent wind and solar power plays a substantial role. These energy sources are characterized by a fluctuating and imprecise predictable power generation, which increase the need of flexibilities within the remaining electricity systems (e.g., conventional power plants) to guarantee a high security of supply. Nowadays, these flexibilities are primarily provided by power plants based on fossil fuel energy. In future, these conventional power plants will increasingly displaced by an increasing renewable power supply. Thus, also weather-dependent renewable energy systems like windmills and PV systems need to contribute to the provision of balancing energy. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to analyse technical and energy economic conditions allowing weather-dependent renewable energy sources to contribute in markets for balancing energy and to estimate the scale of this contribution in a given energy system. As a basis, the day-ahead forecasting quality of the feed-in from wind park systems in Germany is analysed, to estimate the share of the wind power generation, which can be safely predicted for the following day. Based on probabilistic methods and the investigated results the theoretical potential of balancing energy delivered by wind mill systems can be calculated for a given supply area as well as for a defined degree of the security of electricity supply.
Dependency of forecasting accuracy for balancing power supply by weather-dependent renewable energy sources
Magdowski, Annika (author) / Kaltschmitt, Martin (author)
2017-12-01
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
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