A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
House Price Expectations and Housing Choice
What is the role of heterogenous house-price expectations for boom-bust cycles in the housing market? We exploit a unique Dutch panel data set on households' house price expectations and their consumption, savings and housing choices for the period 2003-2016. This period was characterized by a pronounced boom-bust cycle in the housing market. Conditioning the sample on household heads who report non-zero house price expectations, we find that expectations closely track realized house prices. We next develop a structural life-cycle model of the Dutch housing market where we distinguish household types according to their house price expectations. We employ a calibrated model variant to test if observed variations in expectations can account for the housing boom-bust cycle. First results show that our model closely matches the observed fluctuations of the rent-to-price ratio in the data but overshoots the size of the housing boom.
House Price Expectations and Housing Choice
What is the role of heterogenous house-price expectations for boom-bust cycles in the housing market? We exploit a unique Dutch panel data set on households' house price expectations and their consumption, savings and housing choices for the period 2003-2016. This period was characterized by a pronounced boom-bust cycle in the housing market. Conditioning the sample on household heads who report non-zero house price expectations, we find that expectations closely track realized house prices. We next develop a structural life-cycle model of the Dutch housing market where we distinguish household types according to their house price expectations. We employ a calibrated model variant to test if observed variations in expectations can account for the housing boom-bust cycle. First results show that our model closely matches the observed fluctuations of the rent-to-price ratio in the data but overshoots the size of the housing boom.
House Price Expectations and Housing Choice
Mankart, Jochen (author) / Ludwig, Alexander (author) / Wiederholt, Mirko (author) / Quintana, Jorge (author) / Vellekoop, Nathanael (author)
2019-01-01
Conference paper
Electronic Resource
English
ddc:330 , D14 , R21 , D84 , life-cycle model , E30 , Housing , D31 , house price cycles , E21 , G21 , survey expectations
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