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A novel probabilistic risk analysis to determine the vulnerability of ecosystems to extreme climatic events
We present a simple method of probabilistic risk analysis for ecosystems. The only requirements are time series—modelled or measured—of environment and ecosystem variables. Risk is defined as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. Vulnerability is the expected difference in ecosystem performance between years with and without hazardous conditions. We show an application to drought risk for net primary productivity of coniferous forests across Europe, for both recent and future climatic conditions.
A novel probabilistic risk analysis to determine the vulnerability of ecosystems to extreme climatic events
We present a simple method of probabilistic risk analysis for ecosystems. The only requirements are time series—modelled or measured—of environment and ecosystem variables. Risk is defined as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. Vulnerability is the expected difference in ecosystem performance between years with and without hazardous conditions. We show an application to drought risk for net primary productivity of coniferous forests across Europe, for both recent and future climatic conditions.
A novel probabilistic risk analysis to determine the vulnerability of ecosystems to extreme climatic events
Marcel van Oijen (author) / Christian Beer (author) / Wolfgang Cramer (author) / Anja Rammig (author) / Markus Reichstein (author) / Susanne Rolinski (author) / Jean-Francois Soussana (author)
2013
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
Metadata by DOAJ is licensed under CC BY-SA 1.0
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