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Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection
Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO _2 ). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO _2 emissions at some point. Policymakers have now incorporated this concept in the negotiating text for a new global climate agreement, but confusion remains about concepts like carbon neutrality, climate neutrality, full decarbonization, and net zero carbon or net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here we clarify these concepts, discuss their appropriateness to serve as a long-term global benchmark for achieving temperature targets, and provide a detailed quantification. We find that with current pledges and for a likely (>66%) chance of staying below 2 °C, the scenario literature suggests net zero CO _2 emissions between 2060 and 2070, with net negative CO _2 emissions thereafter. Because of residual non-CO _2 emissions, net zero is always reached later for total GHG emissions than for CO _2 . Net zero emissions targets are a useful focal point for policy, linking a global temperature target and socio-economic pathways to a necessary long-term limit on cumulative CO _2 emissions.
Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection
Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO _2 ). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO _2 emissions at some point. Policymakers have now incorporated this concept in the negotiating text for a new global climate agreement, but confusion remains about concepts like carbon neutrality, climate neutrality, full decarbonization, and net zero carbon or net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here we clarify these concepts, discuss their appropriateness to serve as a long-term global benchmark for achieving temperature targets, and provide a detailed quantification. We find that with current pledges and for a likely (>66%) chance of staying below 2 °C, the scenario literature suggests net zero CO _2 emissions between 2060 and 2070, with net negative CO _2 emissions thereafter. Because of residual non-CO _2 emissions, net zero is always reached later for total GHG emissions than for CO _2 . Net zero emissions targets are a useful focal point for policy, linking a global temperature target and socio-economic pathways to a necessary long-term limit on cumulative CO _2 emissions.
Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection
Joeri Rogelj (author) / Michiel Schaeffer (author) / Malte Meinshausen (author) / Reto Knutti (author) / Joseph Alcamo (author) / Keywan Riahi (author) / William Hare (author)
2015
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
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