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A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Modelling the Incursion and Spread of a Forestry Pest: Case Study of Monochamus alternatus Hope (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in Victoria
Effective and efficient systems for surveillance, eradication, containment and management of biosecurity threats require methods to predict the establishment, population growth and spread of organisms that pose a potential biosecurity risk. To support Victorian forest biosecurity operations, Agriculture Victoria has developed a landscape-scale, spatially explicit, spatio-temporal population growth and dispersal model of a generic pest pine beetle. The model can be used to simulate the incursion of a forestry pest from a nominated location(s), such as an importation business site (approved arrangement, AA), into the surrounding environment. The model provides both illustrative and quantitative data on population dynamics and spread of a forestry pest species. Flexibility built into the model design enables a range of spatial extents to be modelled, from user-defined study areas to the Victoria-wide area. The spatial resolution of the model (size of grid cells) can be altered from 100 m to greater than 1 km. The model allows core parameters to be altered by the user, enabling the spread of a variety of windborne insect species and pathogens to be investigated. We verified the model and its parameters by simulating and comparing the outputs with the 1999/2000 Melbourne incursion, but no establishment of a forestry pest beetle was believed to be Monochamus alternatus Hope (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae). The model accurately predicts the distance and direction of the historic incursion, and the subsequent failure to establish is due to low overall population density of the pest species.
Modelling the Incursion and Spread of a Forestry Pest: Case Study of Monochamus alternatus Hope (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in Victoria
Effective and efficient systems for surveillance, eradication, containment and management of biosecurity threats require methods to predict the establishment, population growth and spread of organisms that pose a potential biosecurity risk. To support Victorian forest biosecurity operations, Agriculture Victoria has developed a landscape-scale, spatially explicit, spatio-temporal population growth and dispersal model of a generic pest pine beetle. The model can be used to simulate the incursion of a forestry pest from a nominated location(s), such as an importation business site (approved arrangement, AA), into the surrounding environment. The model provides both illustrative and quantitative data on population dynamics and spread of a forestry pest species. Flexibility built into the model design enables a range of spatial extents to be modelled, from user-defined study areas to the Victoria-wide area. The spatial resolution of the model (size of grid cells) can be altered from 100 m to greater than 1 km. The model allows core parameters to be altered by the user, enabling the spread of a variety of windborne insect species and pathogens to be investigated. We verified the model and its parameters by simulating and comparing the outputs with the 1999/2000 Melbourne incursion, but no establishment of a forestry pest beetle was believed to be Monochamus alternatus Hope (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae). The model accurately predicts the distance and direction of the historic incursion, and the subsequent failure to establish is due to low overall population density of the pest species.
Modelling the Incursion and Spread of a Forestry Pest: Case Study of Monochamus alternatus Hope (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in Victoria
John Weiss (author) / Kathryn Sheffield (author) / Anna Weeks (author) / David Smith (author)
2019
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
Metadata by DOAJ is licensed under CC BY-SA 1.0
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