A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Induced seismicity hazard and risk by enhanced geothermal systems: an expert elicitation approach
Induced seismicity is a concern for multiple geoenergy applications, including low-carbon enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). We present the results of an international expert elicitation ( n = 14) on EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk. Using a hypothetical scenario of an EGS plant and its geological context, we show that expert best-guess estimates of annualized exceedance probabilities of an M ≥ 3 event range from 0.2%–95% during reservoir stimulation and 0.2%–100% during operation. Best-guess annualized exceedance probabilities of M ≥ 5 event span from 0.002%–2% during stimulation and 0.003%–3% during operation. Assuming that tectonic M7 events could occur, some experts do not exclude induced (triggered) events of up to M7 too. If an induced M = 3 event happens at 5 km depth beneath a town with 10 000 inhabitants, most experts estimate a 50% probability that the loss is contained within 500 000 USD without any injuries or fatalities. In the case of an induced M = 5 event, there is 50% chance that the loss is below 50 million USD with the most-likely outcome of 50 injuries and one fatality or none. As we observe a vast diversity in quantitative expert judgements and underlying mental models, we conclude with implications for induced seismicity risk governance. That is, we suggest documenting individual expert judgements in induced seismicity elicitations before proceeding to consensual judgements, to convene larger expert panels in order not to cherry-pick the experts, and to aim for multi-organization multi-model assessments of EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk.
Induced seismicity hazard and risk by enhanced geothermal systems: an expert elicitation approach
Induced seismicity is a concern for multiple geoenergy applications, including low-carbon enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). We present the results of an international expert elicitation ( n = 14) on EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk. Using a hypothetical scenario of an EGS plant and its geological context, we show that expert best-guess estimates of annualized exceedance probabilities of an M ≥ 3 event range from 0.2%–95% during reservoir stimulation and 0.2%–100% during operation. Best-guess annualized exceedance probabilities of M ≥ 5 event span from 0.002%–2% during stimulation and 0.003%–3% during operation. Assuming that tectonic M7 events could occur, some experts do not exclude induced (triggered) events of up to M7 too. If an induced M = 3 event happens at 5 km depth beneath a town with 10 000 inhabitants, most experts estimate a 50% probability that the loss is contained within 500 000 USD without any injuries or fatalities. In the case of an induced M = 5 event, there is 50% chance that the loss is below 50 million USD with the most-likely outcome of 50 injuries and one fatality or none. As we observe a vast diversity in quantitative expert judgements and underlying mental models, we conclude with implications for induced seismicity risk governance. That is, we suggest documenting individual expert judgements in induced seismicity elicitations before proceeding to consensual judgements, to convene larger expert panels in order not to cherry-pick the experts, and to aim for multi-organization multi-model assessments of EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk.
Induced seismicity hazard and risk by enhanced geothermal systems: an expert elicitation approach
Evelina Trutnevyte (author) / Inês L Azevedo (author)
2018
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
Metadata by DOAJ is licensed under CC BY-SA 1.0
Control of hazard due to seismicity induced by a hot fractured rock geothermal project
| Online Contents | 2006
Control of hazard due to seismicity induced by a hot fractured rock geothermal project
| British Library Online Contents | 2006
Bleed-off control on post-injection seismicity in enhanced geothermal systems
| DOAJ | 2025