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A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Short lead time standard precipitation index forecasting: Extreme learning machine and variational mode decomposition
Study region: Six regions in Algeria have been selected as follows: Ain Elhadjel, Msaad, Boussaada, Elkantara, M’sila and M’doukel.Study focus: This study focused on creating a novel hybrid VMD-ELM approach, established by combining the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) technique and the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) algorithm as a preprocessing technique for predicting future droughts. The first 6 and 12-month SPI values 1, 2, and 3-month lead time values were estimated with the ELM algorithm. After that, meteorological variables and Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) values, divided into subcomponents with VMD, are presented to the ELM model, and a drought forecasting model is developed. Model performances were evaluated according to various visual and statistical criteria.New hydrological insights for the region: Soft computing techniques have become the preferred method for producing predictions due to their ability to minimize development time, require minimal input, and offer a relatively less complex approach when compared to dynamic or physical models. As a result of the analysis, it has been determined that the highest prediction accuracies are generally obtained in VMD-ELM models and SPI predictions with a 1-month lead time. The study outputs give important ideas to mite donors regarding water resource planning and climate change adaptation strategies in the study area and can be applied to other arid and semi-arid environments.
Short lead time standard precipitation index forecasting: Extreme learning machine and variational mode decomposition
Study region: Six regions in Algeria have been selected as follows: Ain Elhadjel, Msaad, Boussaada, Elkantara, M’sila and M’doukel.Study focus: This study focused on creating a novel hybrid VMD-ELM approach, established by combining the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) technique and the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) algorithm as a preprocessing technique for predicting future droughts. The first 6 and 12-month SPI values 1, 2, and 3-month lead time values were estimated with the ELM algorithm. After that, meteorological variables and Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) values, divided into subcomponents with VMD, are presented to the ELM model, and a drought forecasting model is developed. Model performances were evaluated according to various visual and statistical criteria.New hydrological insights for the region: Soft computing techniques have become the preferred method for producing predictions due to their ability to minimize development time, require minimal input, and offer a relatively less complex approach when compared to dynamic or physical models. As a result of the analysis, it has been determined that the highest prediction accuracies are generally obtained in VMD-ELM models and SPI predictions with a 1-month lead time. The study outputs give important ideas to mite donors regarding water resource planning and climate change adaptation strategies in the study area and can be applied to other arid and semi-arid environments.
Short lead time standard precipitation index forecasting: Extreme learning machine and variational mode decomposition
Sabrina Ladouali (author) / Okan Mert Katipoğlu (author) / Mehdi Bahrami (author) / Veysi Kartal (author) / Bachir Sakaa (author) / Nehal Elshaboury (author) / Mehdi Keblouti (author) / Hicham Chaffai (author) / Salem Ali (author) / Chaitanya B. Pande (author)
2024
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
Metadata by DOAJ is licensed under CC BY-SA 1.0
| Elsevier | 2024
Drought Forecasting Using Integrated Variational Mode Decomposition and Extreme Gradient Boosting
| DOAJ | 2023