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Intensification of water scarcity threatens future food security in northwestern China
Study region: The northwestern region of China is designated as Xinjiang Province. Study focus: Water scarcity as a result of climate change and population growth is a global concern. Northwestern China, particularly Xinjiang (XJ), plays a vital role in safeguarding China's food security, but it is facing severe water shortages that threaten ecosystems and food security. However, it remains unclear how the compounding water stress originated from climatic and socio-economic changes impacts on food security in XJ in the future. This study investigates future water scarcity under three socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and its impacts on food crop (maize, rice, soy, and wheat) yields. The primary research results are as follows: (1) Water resources has a possibility of a significant decrease over the next six decades, while domestic and industrial water withdrawals could increase. (2) Water scarcity issue in southern XJ could be worsen in the 21st century and it is mainly due to increasing water demand. (3) In the SSP126, SSP260 and SSP585, reduction in food crop yields is −15.5 %, −22.7 %, −23.9 % under the ratio of human water appropriation (RHWA) 50 % and −0.5 %, −8.2 %, and −9.9 % under RHWA60 %. New hydrological insights for the region: (1) An optimum scenario that can balance healthy ecosystem, water and food security is RHWA70 % combined with SSP126. (2) This study highlights the links among water, socio-economics, and ecosystems in a changing environment and suggests that trade-offs and food crop switch need to be considered in the development of XJ region adaptation strategies.
Intensification of water scarcity threatens future food security in northwestern China
Study region: The northwestern region of China is designated as Xinjiang Province. Study focus: Water scarcity as a result of climate change and population growth is a global concern. Northwestern China, particularly Xinjiang (XJ), plays a vital role in safeguarding China's food security, but it is facing severe water shortages that threaten ecosystems and food security. However, it remains unclear how the compounding water stress originated from climatic and socio-economic changes impacts on food security in XJ in the future. This study investigates future water scarcity under three socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and its impacts on food crop (maize, rice, soy, and wheat) yields. The primary research results are as follows: (1) Water resources has a possibility of a significant decrease over the next six decades, while domestic and industrial water withdrawals could increase. (2) Water scarcity issue in southern XJ could be worsen in the 21st century and it is mainly due to increasing water demand. (3) In the SSP126, SSP260 and SSP585, reduction in food crop yields is −15.5 %, −22.7 %, −23.9 % under the ratio of human water appropriation (RHWA) 50 % and −0.5 %, −8.2 %, and −9.9 % under RHWA60 %. New hydrological insights for the region: (1) An optimum scenario that can balance healthy ecosystem, water and food security is RHWA70 % combined with SSP126. (2) This study highlights the links among water, socio-economics, and ecosystems in a changing environment and suggests that trade-offs and food crop switch need to be considered in the development of XJ region adaptation strategies.
Intensification of water scarcity threatens future food security in northwestern China
Yunyun Ban (author) / Qiuhong Tang (author) / Xingcai Liu (author) / Xiaojie Li (author) / Yijia Ren (author) / Haoxin Deng (author) / Gang Zhao (author) / Yongqiang Zhang (author) / Yongyong Zhang (author) / Guoyong Leng (author)
2025
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
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