A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China
Coastal cities in China are challenged by multiple growth paths and strategies related to demands in the housing market, economic growth and eco-system protection. This paper examines the effects of conflicting strategies between economic growth and environmental protection on future urban scenarios in Ningbo, China, through logistic-regression-based cellular automata (termed LogCA) modeling. The LogCA model is calibrated based on the observed urban patterns in 1990 and 2015, and applied to simulate four future scenarios in 2040, including (a) the Norm-scenario, a baseline scenario that maintains the 1990–2015 growth rate; (b) the GDP-scenario, a GDP-oriented growth scenario emphasizing the development in city centers and along economic corridors; (c) the Slow-scenario, a slow-growth scenario considering the potential downward trend of the housing market in China; and (d) the Eco-scenario, a slow-growth scenario emphasizing natural conservation and ecosystem protections. The CA parameters of the Norm- and Slow-scenarios are the same as the calibrated parameters, while the parameters of proximities to economic corridors and natural scenery sites were increased by a factor of 3 for the GDP- and Eco-scenarios, respectively. The Norm- and GDP-scenarios predicted 1950 km2 of new growth for the next 25 years, the Slow-scenario predicted 650 km2, and the Eco-scenario predicted less growth than the Slow-scenario. The locations where the newly built-up area will emerge are significantly different under the four scenarios and the Slow- and Eco-scenarios are preferable to achieve long-term sustainability. The scenarios are not only helpful for exploring sustainable urban development options in China, but also serve as a reference for adjusting the urban planning and land policies.
Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China
Coastal cities in China are challenged by multiple growth paths and strategies related to demands in the housing market, economic growth and eco-system protection. This paper examines the effects of conflicting strategies between economic growth and environmental protection on future urban scenarios in Ningbo, China, through logistic-regression-based cellular automata (termed LogCA) modeling. The LogCA model is calibrated based on the observed urban patterns in 1990 and 2015, and applied to simulate four future scenarios in 2040, including (a) the Norm-scenario, a baseline scenario that maintains the 1990–2015 growth rate; (b) the GDP-scenario, a GDP-oriented growth scenario emphasizing the development in city centers and along economic corridors; (c) the Slow-scenario, a slow-growth scenario considering the potential downward trend of the housing market in China; and (d) the Eco-scenario, a slow-growth scenario emphasizing natural conservation and ecosystem protections. The CA parameters of the Norm- and Slow-scenarios are the same as the calibrated parameters, while the parameters of proximities to economic corridors and natural scenery sites were increased by a factor of 3 for the GDP- and Eco-scenarios, respectively. The Norm- and GDP-scenarios predicted 1950 km2 of new growth for the next 25 years, the Slow-scenario predicted 650 km2, and the Eco-scenario predicted less growth than the Slow-scenario. The locations where the newly built-up area will emerge are significantly different under the four scenarios and the Slow- and Eco-scenarios are preferable to achieve long-term sustainability. The scenarios are not only helpful for exploring sustainable urban development options in China, but also serve as a reference for adjusting the urban planning and land policies.
Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China
Yan Liu (author) / Yongjiu Feng (author)
2016
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
Metadata by DOAJ is licensed under ​CC BY-SA 1.0
120 Amateur Architecture Studio - Ningbo Museum, Yinzhou, Ningbo, China
| Online Contents | 2010
120: Amateur Architecture Studio Ningbo Museum, Yinzhou, Ningbo, China
British Library Online Contents | 2010
Ningbo - A new sustainable city for China
| British Library Conference Proceedings | 2004