A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Forecasting the Volume of Tourism Services in Uzbekistan
The aim of the present research is to assess the impact of factors such as welfare, infrastructure, security, and the environment on inbound tourism as well as to develop its forecast. Six proxy indicators of the above-mentioned factors were selected as variables, namely, welfare (real GDP per capita, life expectancy, consumer price index), infrastructure (passenger transportation volume), security (total recorded crimes), and the environment (CO2 emissions). We used a time series-univariate ARIMA model to forecast the inbound tourism in the Republic of Uzbekistan, and applied the ARDL model to assess the impact of lagged real GDP per capita on inbound tourism in both the short and long terms. The results of our research show that security and welfare significantly affect the inflow of foreign tourists in the country, along with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, the effects of which are expected to persist beyond 2026.
Forecasting the Volume of Tourism Services in Uzbekistan
The aim of the present research is to assess the impact of factors such as welfare, infrastructure, security, and the environment on inbound tourism as well as to develop its forecast. Six proxy indicators of the above-mentioned factors were selected as variables, namely, welfare (real GDP per capita, life expectancy, consumer price index), infrastructure (passenger transportation volume), security (total recorded crimes), and the environment (CO2 emissions). We used a time series-univariate ARIMA model to forecast the inbound tourism in the Republic of Uzbekistan, and applied the ARDL model to assess the impact of lagged real GDP per capita on inbound tourism in both the short and long terms. The results of our research show that security and welfare significantly affect the inflow of foreign tourists in the country, along with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, the effects of which are expected to persist beyond 2026.
Forecasting the Volume of Tourism Services in Uzbekistan
Bahodirhon Safarov (author) / Hisham Mohammad Al-Smadi (author) / Makhina Buzrukova (author) / Bekzot Janzakov (author) / Alexandru Ilieş (author) / Vasile Grama (author) / Dorina Camelia Ilieș (author) / Katalin Csobán Vargáné (author) / Lóránt Dénes Dávid (author)
2022
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
Metadata by DOAJ is licensed under CC BY-SA 1.0
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