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MODELING TRENDS OF INVESTMENT AND CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITIES OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Subject: the results of the study are particularly relevant in the modern system of cyclical crisis generated by the change of Kondratieff’s long waves of economic development and technological structures. From the point of view of synergetics, these processes have the ability to trigger a new order having spontaneous transformation due to endogenous factors. Qualitatively predictable fluctuations in the socio-economic environment and management may lead to self-organization and sustainable development of the economic system. Construction and investment activity of Russia in the majority of cases was investigated by economists without a detailed understanding of system characteristics, inherent properties and laws, which are identified from the results of economic-mathematical modeling. Research objectives: 1. Timely and qualitative prediction of moments of crisis in the investment and construction activities of Russia; 2. Modeling of management activities for the purpose of transitioning to the desired path of development of economic system; 3. Creation of a model that is simple enough for practical use by economists and the use of public data sets in it; studying influence of the bifurcation diagram at a certain time and bypassing the critical points of the system that lead to undesirable outcome. Materials and methods: approximation of the statistical data sets, regression analysis, phase analysis, differential modeling. Results: The authors developed a mathematical model that allows us to use statistical data on investment and construction activities and accurately forecast the chances of recession of the system, and also identify the sensitivity of order parameters to the dynamics of control variables, bifurcation states and behavior of the object under certain management conditions. Conclusions: the paper presents an approach to modeling and forecasting the trends of development of complex cyclic and stochastic subsystem of the national economy - investment and construction activities. We developed economic-mathematical model based on differential equation of the second order, allowing us to use statistical data and predict behavior of the system depending on management actions. We identified the dynamics of the impact of control variables on the order parameter of the economic system under study in various time periods. The obtained results should be used in strategic planning and management of innovative development of investment and construction activities of Russia.
MODELING TRENDS OF INVESTMENT AND CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITIES OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Subject: the results of the study are particularly relevant in the modern system of cyclical crisis generated by the change of Kondratieff’s long waves of economic development and technological structures. From the point of view of synergetics, these processes have the ability to trigger a new order having spontaneous transformation due to endogenous factors. Qualitatively predictable fluctuations in the socio-economic environment and management may lead to self-organization and sustainable development of the economic system. Construction and investment activity of Russia in the majority of cases was investigated by economists without a detailed understanding of system characteristics, inherent properties and laws, which are identified from the results of economic-mathematical modeling. Research objectives: 1. Timely and qualitative prediction of moments of crisis in the investment and construction activities of Russia; 2. Modeling of management activities for the purpose of transitioning to the desired path of development of economic system; 3. Creation of a model that is simple enough for practical use by economists and the use of public data sets in it; studying influence of the bifurcation diagram at a certain time and bypassing the critical points of the system that lead to undesirable outcome. Materials and methods: approximation of the statistical data sets, regression analysis, phase analysis, differential modeling. Results: The authors developed a mathematical model that allows us to use statistical data on investment and construction activities and accurately forecast the chances of recession of the system, and also identify the sensitivity of order parameters to the dynamics of control variables, bifurcation states and behavior of the object under certain management conditions. Conclusions: the paper presents an approach to modeling and forecasting the trends of development of complex cyclic and stochastic subsystem of the national economy - investment and construction activities. We developed economic-mathematical model based on differential equation of the second order, allowing us to use statistical data and predict behavior of the system depending on management actions. We identified the dynamics of the impact of control variables on the order parameter of the economic system under study in various time periods. The obtained results should be used in strategic planning and management of innovative development of investment and construction activities of Russia.
MODELING TRENDS OF INVESTMENT AND CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITIES OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Geraskina Inna Nikolaevna (author) / Zatonskiy Andrey Vladimirovich (author)
2017
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
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