A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Future summer mega-heatwave and record-breaking temperatures in a warmer France climate
This study focuses on future very hot summers associated with severe heatwaves and record-breaking temperatures in France. Daily temperature observations and a pair of historical and scenario (greenhouse gas radiative concentration pathway 8.5) simulations with the high-resolution (∼12.5 km) ALADIN regional climate model provide a robust framework to examine the spatial distribution of these extreme events and their 21st century evolution. Five regions are identified with an extreme event spatial clustering algorithm applied to observed temperatures. They are used to diagnose the 21st century heatwave spatial patterns. In the 2070s, we find a simulated mega-heatwave as severe as the 2003 observed heatwave relative to its contemporaneous climate. A 20-member initial condition ensemble is used to assess the sensitivity of this future heatwave to the internal variability in the regional climate model and to pre-existing land surface conditions. Even in a much warmer and drier climate in France, late spring dry land conditions may lead to a significant amplification of summer extreme temperatures and heatwave intensity through limitations in evapotranspiration. By 2100, the increase in summer temperature maxima exhibits a range from 6 °C to almost 13 °C in the five regions in France, relative to historical maxima. These projections are comparable with the estimates given by a large number of global climate models.
Future summer mega-heatwave and record-breaking temperatures in a warmer France climate
This study focuses on future very hot summers associated with severe heatwaves and record-breaking temperatures in France. Daily temperature observations and a pair of historical and scenario (greenhouse gas radiative concentration pathway 8.5) simulations with the high-resolution (∼12.5 km) ALADIN regional climate model provide a robust framework to examine the spatial distribution of these extreme events and their 21st century evolution. Five regions are identified with an extreme event spatial clustering algorithm applied to observed temperatures. They are used to diagnose the 21st century heatwave spatial patterns. In the 2070s, we find a simulated mega-heatwave as severe as the 2003 observed heatwave relative to its contemporaneous climate. A 20-member initial condition ensemble is used to assess the sensitivity of this future heatwave to the internal variability in the regional climate model and to pre-existing land surface conditions. Even in a much warmer and drier climate in France, late spring dry land conditions may lead to a significant amplification of summer extreme temperatures and heatwave intensity through limitations in evapotranspiration. By 2100, the increase in summer temperature maxima exhibits a range from 6 °C to almost 13 °C in the five regions in France, relative to historical maxima. These projections are comparable with the estimates given by a large number of global climate models.
Future summer mega-heatwave and record-breaking temperatures in a warmer France climate
Margot Bador (author) / Laurent Terray (author) / Julien Boé (author) / Samuel Somot (author) / Antoinette Alias (author) / Anne-Laure Gibelin (author) / Brigitte Dubuisson (author)
2017
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
future mega-heatwave , future extreme and record-breaking temperatures , temperature amplification by soil-atmosphere interactions , EURO-CORDEX regional climate model , CMIP5 global climate model , SQR observations of daily maximum temperature , Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering , TD1-1066 , Environmental sciences , GE1-350 , Science , Q , Physics , QC1-999
Metadata by DOAJ is licensed under CC BY-SA 1.0
The 2022 mega heatwave in South Asia in the observed and projected future climate
| DOAJ | 2023
Rapid attribution of the record-breaking heatwave event in North China in June 2023 and future risks
| DOAJ | 2023
Record-breaking persistence of the 2022/23 marine heatwave in the Mediterranean Sea
| DOAJ | 2023