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Spatiotemporal characteristics of future precipitation variability in the Tianshan Mountain region of China
Study region: Tianshan Mountain region of China. Study focus: Global warming alters precipitation patterns, with future scenarios predicting variability being greater than merely changes in rainfall amounts. Changes have affected the water cycle and resource stability in the Tianshan Mountain region in China (TM), the primary water source of Central Asia. Based on ensemble precipitation data from the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset, this study analyzed multiscale changes in precipitation variability in the TM for the near (2030–2065) and far future (2066–2100) using Shannon entropy, offering valuable insights for water resource management and future challenges. New hydrological insights for the region: A negative correlation was observed between precipitation variability and precipitation, with areas experiencing high precipitation usually having low variability. In the near future, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP245) scenario indicated higher interannual precipitation variability, whereas the SSP585 scenario showed lower variability. In the far future, the SSP585 scenario showed an increase in interannual and a decrease in intra-annual variability, whereas the SSP245 scenario showed an opposite trend. Seasonal perspectives showed that summer interannual variability decreased in the future, with increases in spring and fall. Owing to changes in precipitation patterns, water resource availability increased in the future, with the SSP585 scenario showing a greater increase than the SSP245 scenario.
Spatiotemporal characteristics of future precipitation variability in the Tianshan Mountain region of China
Study region: Tianshan Mountain region of China. Study focus: Global warming alters precipitation patterns, with future scenarios predicting variability being greater than merely changes in rainfall amounts. Changes have affected the water cycle and resource stability in the Tianshan Mountain region in China (TM), the primary water source of Central Asia. Based on ensemble precipitation data from the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset, this study analyzed multiscale changes in precipitation variability in the TM for the near (2030–2065) and far future (2066–2100) using Shannon entropy, offering valuable insights for water resource management and future challenges. New hydrological insights for the region: A negative correlation was observed between precipitation variability and precipitation, with areas experiencing high precipitation usually having low variability. In the near future, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP245) scenario indicated higher interannual precipitation variability, whereas the SSP585 scenario showed lower variability. In the far future, the SSP585 scenario showed an increase in interannual and a decrease in intra-annual variability, whereas the SSP245 scenario showed an opposite trend. Seasonal perspectives showed that summer interannual variability decreased in the future, with increases in spring and fall. Owing to changes in precipitation patterns, water resource availability increased in the future, with the SSP585 scenario showing a greater increase than the SSP245 scenario.
Spatiotemporal characteristics of future precipitation variability in the Tianshan Mountain region of China
Xianglin Lyu (author) / Junkai Du (author) / Yaqin Qiu (author) / Yangwen Jia (author) / Chunfeng Hao (author) / Hao Dong (author)
2025
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
Metadata by DOAJ is licensed under CC BY-SA 1.0
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