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Groundwater Modeling to Assess Climate Change Impacts and Sustainability in the Tana Basin, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia
Climate change effects on long-term groundwater (GW) resource developments in the Tana Basin, Ethiopia, are a growing concern. Efforts to provide estimates under various climatic uncertainties are lacking in the region. To address this need, we deployed a fine-resolution (500 m) GW model using MODFLOW-NWT for the Tana Basin, Upper the Blue Nile region. The GW model was calibrated based on 98 historical instantaneous well-level measurements (RMSE = 16.36 m, 1.6% of range), and 38 years of monthly lake level data (RMSE = 0.2 m, 6.7% of range). We used the model to simulate long-term climate change impacts by considering two representative concentration pathways, (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, from the two extreme global circulation models (MIROC5 for wetter conditions and CSIRO-Mk3 for drier conditions) available in the region. While the MIROC5 simulated GW table (GWT) was found to be stable, the CSIRO-Mk3 simulated GWT exhibited large fluctuations within +2 m to −4 m by 2100 due to climate change. More critical impacts were predicted for the lake, where total lake releases from the baseline scenario were foreseen to be changed by +50% (MIROC5) or −22% (CSIRO-Mk3) by the end of 2100.
Groundwater Modeling to Assess Climate Change Impacts and Sustainability in the Tana Basin, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia
Climate change effects on long-term groundwater (GW) resource developments in the Tana Basin, Ethiopia, are a growing concern. Efforts to provide estimates under various climatic uncertainties are lacking in the region. To address this need, we deployed a fine-resolution (500 m) GW model using MODFLOW-NWT for the Tana Basin, Upper the Blue Nile region. The GW model was calibrated based on 98 historical instantaneous well-level measurements (RMSE = 16.36 m, 1.6% of range), and 38 years of monthly lake level data (RMSE = 0.2 m, 6.7% of range). We used the model to simulate long-term climate change impacts by considering two representative concentration pathways, (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, from the two extreme global circulation models (MIROC5 for wetter conditions and CSIRO-Mk3 for drier conditions) available in the region. While the MIROC5 simulated GW table (GWT) was found to be stable, the CSIRO-Mk3 simulated GWT exhibited large fluctuations within +2 m to −4 m by 2100 due to climate change. More critical impacts were predicted for the lake, where total lake releases from the baseline scenario were foreseen to be changed by +50% (MIROC5) or −22% (CSIRO-Mk3) by the end of 2100.
Groundwater Modeling to Assess Climate Change Impacts and Sustainability in the Tana Basin, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia
Fahad Khan Khadim (author) / Zoi Dokou (author) / Rehenuma Lazin (author) / Amvrossios C. Bagtzoglou (author) / Emmanouil Anagnostou (author)
2023
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
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| Taylor & Francis Verlag | 2023
| British Library Conference Proceedings | 2009