A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Hydrological drought forecasts outperform meteorological drought forecasts
One of the most effective strategies to reduce the impacts of drought is by issuing a timely and targeted warning from month to seasons ahead to end users. Yet to accurately forecast the drought hazard on a sub-seasonal to seasonal time scale remains a challenge, and usually, meteorological drought is forecasted instead of hydrological drought, although the latter is more relevant for several impacted sectors. Therefore, we evaluate the hydro-meteorological drought forecast skill for the pan-European region using categorical drought classification method. The results show that the hydrological drought forecasts outperform the meteorological drought forecasts. Hydrological drought forecasts even show predictive power (area with perfect prediction > 50%) beyond two months ahead. Our study also concludes that dynamical forecasts, derived from seasonal forecasts, have higher predictability than ensemble streamflow predictions. The results suggest that further development of seasonal hydrological drought forecasting systems are beneficial, particularly important in the context of global warming, where drought hazard will become more frequent and severe in multiple regions in the world.
Hydrological drought forecasts outperform meteorological drought forecasts
One of the most effective strategies to reduce the impacts of drought is by issuing a timely and targeted warning from month to seasons ahead to end users. Yet to accurately forecast the drought hazard on a sub-seasonal to seasonal time scale remains a challenge, and usually, meteorological drought is forecasted instead of hydrological drought, although the latter is more relevant for several impacted sectors. Therefore, we evaluate the hydro-meteorological drought forecast skill for the pan-European region using categorical drought classification method. The results show that the hydrological drought forecasts outperform the meteorological drought forecasts. Hydrological drought forecasts even show predictive power (area with perfect prediction > 50%) beyond two months ahead. Our study also concludes that dynamical forecasts, derived from seasonal forecasts, have higher predictability than ensemble streamflow predictions. The results suggest that further development of seasonal hydrological drought forecasting systems are beneficial, particularly important in the context of global warming, where drought hazard will become more frequent and severe in multiple regions in the world.
Hydrological drought forecasts outperform meteorological drought forecasts
Samuel J Sutanto (author) / Fredrik Wetterhall (author) / Henny A J Van Lanen (author)
2020
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
Metadata by DOAJ is licensed under CC BY-SA 1.0
Drought forecasts and decision support on Loire River
| British Library Online Contents | 2010
Do CFSv2 Seasonal Forecasts Help Improve the Forecast of Meteorological Drought over Mainland China?
| DOAJ | 2020
Probability links between meteorological drought and hydrological drought from a 3D perspective
| Elsevier | 2024