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A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Socio-hydrological prediction of soft-path vs. hard-path in flood risk management under climate change: A case study from the Lower Kelani River Basin, Sri Lanka
Study region: Lower Kelani River Basin, Sri Lanka. Study focus: The dynamics of human-flood interactions are particularly pronounced in flood-prone regions. Effective flood management requires a synergistic approach that combines “hard” with “soft” measures in these areas. However, a gap remains in the empirical evaluation of the combined efficiency of these measures in the context of a changing climate and human–flood interaction dynamics. This study introduced an enhanced socio-hydrological model that evaluates hard and soft measures. New hydrological insights for the region: We projected future annual maximum river levels using downscaled GCMs under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), incorporating simulations from the HEC-HMS model. Subsequently, a socio-hydrological model (SHM) was employed to outline potential socio-hydrological trajectories from 2025 to 2100. Floodplain dynamics were assessed under four management options: business-as-usual, soft-path, hard-path, and combined hard- and soft-path scenarios. These findings underscore the critical role of soft measures in mitigating flood damage across protected and unprotected floodplains. The soft-path approach demonstrated a 10–14 % reduction in damage compared with the business-as-usual scenario across all GCM-RCP scenarios. The integrated hard- and soft-path strategies showed a damage reduction of 12–38 % compared with the hard-path alone. This study also highlighted the significant role of Flood Risk Information (FRI) in reducing flood damage, particularly in protected floodplains.
Socio-hydrological prediction of soft-path vs. hard-path in flood risk management under climate change: A case study from the Lower Kelani River Basin, Sri Lanka
Study region: Lower Kelani River Basin, Sri Lanka. Study focus: The dynamics of human-flood interactions are particularly pronounced in flood-prone regions. Effective flood management requires a synergistic approach that combines “hard” with “soft” measures in these areas. However, a gap remains in the empirical evaluation of the combined efficiency of these measures in the context of a changing climate and human–flood interaction dynamics. This study introduced an enhanced socio-hydrological model that evaluates hard and soft measures. New hydrological insights for the region: We projected future annual maximum river levels using downscaled GCMs under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), incorporating simulations from the HEC-HMS model. Subsequently, a socio-hydrological model (SHM) was employed to outline potential socio-hydrological trajectories from 2025 to 2100. Floodplain dynamics were assessed under four management options: business-as-usual, soft-path, hard-path, and combined hard- and soft-path scenarios. These findings underscore the critical role of soft measures in mitigating flood damage across protected and unprotected floodplains. The soft-path approach demonstrated a 10–14 % reduction in damage compared with the business-as-usual scenario across all GCM-RCP scenarios. The integrated hard- and soft-path strategies showed a damage reduction of 12–38 % compared with the hard-path alone. This study also highlighted the significant role of Flood Risk Information (FRI) in reducing flood damage, particularly in protected floodplains.
Socio-hydrological prediction of soft-path vs. hard-path in flood risk management under climate change: A case study from the Lower Kelani River Basin, Sri Lanka
Chamal Perera (author) / Katsunori Tamakawa (author) / Mohamed Rasmy (author) / Tomoki Ushiyama (author) / Shinichiro Nakamura (author)
2025
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
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