A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Asynchronous exposure to global warming: freshwater resources and terrestrial ecosystems
This modelling study demonstrates at what level of global mean temperature rise (Δ T _g ) regions will be exposed to significant decreases of freshwater availability and changes to terrestrial ecosystems. Projections are based on a new, consistent set of 152 climate scenarios (eight Δ T _g trajectories reaching 1.5–5 ° C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, each scaled with spatial patterns from 19 general circulation models). The results suggest that already at a Δ T _g of 2 ° C and mainly in the subtropics, higher water scarcity would occur in >50% out of the 19 climate scenarios. Substantial biogeochemical and vegetation structural changes would also occur at 2 ° C, but mainly in subpolar and semiarid ecosystems. Other regions would be affected at higher Δ T _g levels, with lower intensity or with lower confidence. In total, mean global warming levels of 2 ° C, 3.5 ° C and 5 ° C are simulated to expose an additional 8%, 11% and 13% of the world population to new or aggravated water scarcity, respectively, with >50% confidence (while ∼1.3 billion people already live in water-scarce regions). Concurrently, substantial habitat transformations would occur in biogeographic regions that contain 1% (in zones affected at 2 ° C), 10% (3.5 ° C) and 74% (5 ° C) of present endemism-weighted vascular plant species, respectively. The results suggest nonlinear growth of impacts along with Δ T _g and highlight regional disparities in impact magnitudes and critical Δ T _g levels.
Asynchronous exposure to global warming: freshwater resources and terrestrial ecosystems
This modelling study demonstrates at what level of global mean temperature rise (Δ T _g ) regions will be exposed to significant decreases of freshwater availability and changes to terrestrial ecosystems. Projections are based on a new, consistent set of 152 climate scenarios (eight Δ T _g trajectories reaching 1.5–5 ° C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, each scaled with spatial patterns from 19 general circulation models). The results suggest that already at a Δ T _g of 2 ° C and mainly in the subtropics, higher water scarcity would occur in >50% out of the 19 climate scenarios. Substantial biogeochemical and vegetation structural changes would also occur at 2 ° C, but mainly in subpolar and semiarid ecosystems. Other regions would be affected at higher Δ T _g levels, with lower intensity or with lower confidence. In total, mean global warming levels of 2 ° C, 3.5 ° C and 5 ° C are simulated to expose an additional 8%, 11% and 13% of the world population to new or aggravated water scarcity, respectively, with >50% confidence (while ∼1.3 billion people already live in water-scarce regions). Concurrently, substantial habitat transformations would occur in biogeographic regions that contain 1% (in zones affected at 2 ° C), 10% (3.5 ° C) and 74% (5 ° C) of present endemism-weighted vascular plant species, respectively. The results suggest nonlinear growth of impacts along with Δ T _g and highlight regional disparities in impact magnitudes and critical Δ T _g levels.
Asynchronous exposure to global warming: freshwater resources and terrestrial ecosystems
Dieter Gerten (author) / Wolfgang Lucht (author) / Sebastian Ostberg (author) / Jens Heinke (author) / Martin Kowarsch (author) / Holger Kreft (author) / Zbigniew W Kundzewicz (author) / Johann Rastgooy (author) / Rachel Warren (author) / Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (author)
2013
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
Metadata by DOAJ is licensed under CC BY-SA 1.0
Asynchronous exposure to global warming: freshwater resources and terrestrial ecosystems
| IOP Institute of Physics | 2013
Reviews - Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems
| Online Contents | 1999
Occurrence, Fate and Fluxes of Plastics and Microplastics in Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems
| Springer Verlag | 2020
Challenges for Freshwater Ecosystems
| Wiley | 2019