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Multi-Model Comparison in the Attribution of Runoff Variation across a Humid Region of Southern China
The natural hydrological cycle of basins has been significantly altered by climate change and human activities, leading to considerable uncertainties in attributing runoff. In this study, the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff of the Ganjiang River Basin was analyzed, and a variety of models with different spatio-temporal scales and complexities were used to evaluate the influence of model choice on runoff attribution and to reduce the uncertainties. The results show the following: (1) The potential evapotranspiration in the Ganjiang River Basin showed a significant downward trend, precipitation showed a significant upward trend, runoff showed a nonsignificant upward trend, and an abrupt change was detected in 1968; (2) The three hydrological models used with different temporal scales and complexity, GR1A, ABCD, DTVGM, can simulate the natural distribution of water resources in the Ganjiang River Basin; and (3) The impact of climate change on runoff change ranges from 60.07% to 82.88%, while human activities account for approximately 17.12% to 39.93%. The results show that climate change is the main driving factor leading to runoff variation in the Ganjiang River Basin.
Multi-Model Comparison in the Attribution of Runoff Variation across a Humid Region of Southern China
The natural hydrological cycle of basins has been significantly altered by climate change and human activities, leading to considerable uncertainties in attributing runoff. In this study, the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff of the Ganjiang River Basin was analyzed, and a variety of models with different spatio-temporal scales and complexities were used to evaluate the influence of model choice on runoff attribution and to reduce the uncertainties. The results show the following: (1) The potential evapotranspiration in the Ganjiang River Basin showed a significant downward trend, precipitation showed a significant upward trend, runoff showed a nonsignificant upward trend, and an abrupt change was detected in 1968; (2) The three hydrological models used with different temporal scales and complexity, GR1A, ABCD, DTVGM, can simulate the natural distribution of water resources in the Ganjiang River Basin; and (3) The impact of climate change on runoff change ranges from 60.07% to 82.88%, while human activities account for approximately 17.12% to 39.93%. The results show that climate change is the main driving factor leading to runoff variation in the Ganjiang River Basin.
Multi-Model Comparison in the Attribution of Runoff Variation across a Humid Region of Southern China
Qiang Wang (author) / Fang Yang (author) / Xiaozhang Hu (author) / Peng Hou (author) / Yin Zhang (author) / Pengjun Li (author) / Kairong Lin (author)
2024
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
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