A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Future Changes in Temperature and Precipitation over Northeastern Brazil by CMIP6 Model
Global warming is causing an intensification of extreme climate events with significant changes in frequency, duration, and intensity over many regions. Understanding the current and future influence of this warming in northeastern Brazil (NEB) is important due to the region’s greater vulnerability to natural disasters, as historical records show. In this paper, characteristics of climate change projections (precipitation and air temperature) over NEB are analyzed using 15 models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) scenarios. By using the Taylor diagram, we observed that the HadGEM3-GC31-MM model simulates the seasonal behavior of climate variables more efficiently. Projections for NEB indicate an irreversible increase in average air temperature of at least 1 °C throughout the 21st century, with a reduction of up to 30% in annual rainfall, as present in scenarios of regional rivalry (SSP3-7.0) and high emissions (SSP5-8.5). This means that a higher concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) will increase air temperature, evaporation, and evapotranspiration, reducing rainfall and increasing drought events. The results obtained in this work are essential for the elaboration of effective strategies for adapting to and mitigating climate change for the NEB.
Future Changes in Temperature and Precipitation over Northeastern Brazil by CMIP6 Model
Global warming is causing an intensification of extreme climate events with significant changes in frequency, duration, and intensity over many regions. Understanding the current and future influence of this warming in northeastern Brazil (NEB) is important due to the region’s greater vulnerability to natural disasters, as historical records show. In this paper, characteristics of climate change projections (precipitation and air temperature) over NEB are analyzed using 15 models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) scenarios. By using the Taylor diagram, we observed that the HadGEM3-GC31-MM model simulates the seasonal behavior of climate variables more efficiently. Projections for NEB indicate an irreversible increase in average air temperature of at least 1 °C throughout the 21st century, with a reduction of up to 30% in annual rainfall, as present in scenarios of regional rivalry (SSP3-7.0) and high emissions (SSP5-8.5). This means that a higher concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) will increase air temperature, evaporation, and evapotranspiration, reducing rainfall and increasing drought events. The results obtained in this work are essential for the elaboration of effective strategies for adapting to and mitigating climate change for the NEB.
Future Changes in Temperature and Precipitation over Northeastern Brazil by CMIP6 Model
Leydson G. Dantas (author) / Carlos A. C. dos Santos (author) / Celso A. G. Santos (author) / Eduardo S. P. R. Martins (author) / Lincoln M. Alves (author)
2022
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
Metadata by DOAJ is licensed under CC BY-SA 1.0
Future changes in precipitation over Central Asia based on CMIP6 projections
| DOAJ | 2020
| DOAJ | 2021
Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Models
| DOAJ | 2021
Future Projection of Precipitation Bioclimatic Indicators over Southeast Asia Using CMIP6
| DOAJ | 2022
Multi-criteria evaluation of CMIP6 precipitation and temperature simulations over Iran
| DOAJ | 2024