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Infrastructure capacity planning for reducing risks of future hydrologic extremes
Floods and droughts and their associated economic, environmental, and social losses or damages are increasing in severity and frequency. Measures taken to reduce these losses or damages stemming from extreme events typically depend on how effective they are in reducing the consequences of having either too much or too little water and for longer periods of time. To identify trade-offs between the annual estimated loss or damage reduction, i.e., the benefits, however measured, and the average annual cost of various damage reduction measures, one can perform risk–cost analyses. Because of climate change, the likelihoods of future hydrologic extremes are both changing and uncertain. Also uncertain are any estimates of future damages that would occur given any specific extreme event. In addition, one cannot be certain of the future costs or benefits of damage reduction measures. This paper outlines a range of practical approaches for identifying these trade-offs, taking into account the uncertainties associated with future damages resulting from any specific flood or drought event, the changing uncertainties of future flood and drought events, and the uncertainty of future damage mitigation costs. HIGHLIGHTS Explaining the impact of deep hydrologic uncertainty on water infrastructure planning.; Discussing how the uncertainty of future hydrologic extremes influences extreme events plus safety factor approaches, scenario planning, and adaptive planning.; Presenting a conceptual risk–cost model for infrastructure planning.; Emphasizing the importance of determining the influence of assumptions regarding the future on current infrastructure capacity decisions.;
Infrastructure capacity planning for reducing risks of future hydrologic extremes
Floods and droughts and their associated economic, environmental, and social losses or damages are increasing in severity and frequency. Measures taken to reduce these losses or damages stemming from extreme events typically depend on how effective they are in reducing the consequences of having either too much or too little water and for longer periods of time. To identify trade-offs between the annual estimated loss or damage reduction, i.e., the benefits, however measured, and the average annual cost of various damage reduction measures, one can perform risk–cost analyses. Because of climate change, the likelihoods of future hydrologic extremes are both changing and uncertain. Also uncertain are any estimates of future damages that would occur given any specific extreme event. In addition, one cannot be certain of the future costs or benefits of damage reduction measures. This paper outlines a range of practical approaches for identifying these trade-offs, taking into account the uncertainties associated with future damages resulting from any specific flood or drought event, the changing uncertainties of future flood and drought events, and the uncertainty of future damage mitigation costs. HIGHLIGHTS Explaining the impact of deep hydrologic uncertainty on water infrastructure planning.; Discussing how the uncertainty of future hydrologic extremes influences extreme events plus safety factor approaches, scenario planning, and adaptive planning.; Presenting a conceptual risk–cost model for infrastructure planning.; Emphasizing the importance of determining the influence of assumptions regarding the future on current infrastructure capacity decisions.;
Infrastructure capacity planning for reducing risks of future hydrologic extremes
John J. Boland (author) / Daniel Peter Loucks (author)
2021
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
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