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Evaluating and improving the stability predictions of the snow cover model SNOWPACK
AbstractThe snow cover model SNOWPACK simulates snow stratigraphy for the locations of automatic snow and weather stations. Based on the stratigraphy, snow stability is predicted by calculating three stability indices. We verified the performance of the skier stability index SK38. Since the index depends on snow layer characteristics those were first compared to manual observations. Some significant differences between model results and observations existed. A new parameterisation for the snow hardness index was introduced. The skier stability index SK38 performed poorly in terms of identifying potential weak layers. However, if the potentially critical weak layers were found, the SK38 was significantly correlated with observed stability. By introducing a new stability formulation that combines the SK38 with differences of hardness and grain size across layer interfaces — known indicators of structural instability — the model performance was substantially improved. Simulated snow stratigraphy could successfully be classified into three stability classes. With these improvements the snow cover model SNOWPACK will become useful as supporting tool for stability evaluation as done by avalanche warning services.
Evaluating and improving the stability predictions of the snow cover model SNOWPACK
AbstractThe snow cover model SNOWPACK simulates snow stratigraphy for the locations of automatic snow and weather stations. Based on the stratigraphy, snow stability is predicted by calculating three stability indices. We verified the performance of the skier stability index SK38. Since the index depends on snow layer characteristics those were first compared to manual observations. Some significant differences between model results and observations existed. A new parameterisation for the snow hardness index was introduced. The skier stability index SK38 performed poorly in terms of identifying potential weak layers. However, if the potentially critical weak layers were found, the SK38 was significantly correlated with observed stability. By introducing a new stability formulation that combines the SK38 with differences of hardness and grain size across layer interfaces — known indicators of structural instability — the model performance was substantially improved. Simulated snow stratigraphy could successfully be classified into three stability classes. With these improvements the snow cover model SNOWPACK will become useful as supporting tool for stability evaluation as done by avalanche warning services.
Evaluating and improving the stability predictions of the snow cover model SNOWPACK
Schweizer, Jürg (author) / Bellaire, Sascha (author) / Fierz, Charles (author) / Lehning, Michael (author) / Pielmeier, Christine (author)
Cold Regions, Science and Technology ; 46 ; 52-59
2006-05-31
8 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
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