Probabilistic characterization of seismic ground deformation due to tectonic fault movements: Fid-Bau Portal

Probabilistic characterization of seismic ground deformation due to tectonic fault movements

Goda, Katsuichiro

AbstractTectonic ground deformations in the near-fault region cause major damage to buildings and infrastructure. To characterize ground deformation demands on structures, a novel stochastic approach to evaluate the ground deformations of tectonic origin is developed by combining probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters, synthetic earthquake slip models, and Okada equations for calculating the deformation field due to a fault movement. The output of the method is the probability distribution of ground deformations at a single location or differential ground deformations between two locations. The derived probabilistic models can be employed as input to advanced structural models and analyses. The method is illustrated for the 16 April 2016 Kumamoto earthquake in Japan. By comparing simulated ground deformations with observed deformations at multiple sites, a set of refined source models is first derived and then used to investigate the detailed earthquake characteristics of the event and to develop probability distributions of tectonic ground deformations at target sites.

Highlights•Tectonic ground deformations in the near-fault region are evaluated probabilistically.•The new method takes into account uncertainties in earthquake source characteristics.•Ground deformation fields that are spatially consistent are generated by evaluating Okada equations.•The developed method is applied to the 16 April 2016 Mw7.0 Kumamoto earthquake in Japan.•A stochastic method to generate multiple refined source models is developed and demonstrated.