Climate change impact on snow loads in northern Europe: Fid-Bau Portal

Climate change impact on snow loads in northern Europe

Larsson Ivanov, Oskar / Bärring, Lars / Wilcke, Renate A.I.

Highlights • For most of northern Europe the snow load will decrease during the next decades. • For certain areas of the region the ground snow load may increase. • Variations between models are large where an increase in snow load can be expected.

Abstract Ongoing and future climate change will affect our built environment. It will have an impact on how we should design our structures to withstand the future environment. One important load when designing buildings in high latitudes and high elevations is the snow load, which in many countries is the governing load for roofs and other structural parts. A warmer climate may lead to a reduction in snow cover. How this reduction relates to extreme values that occur very seldom, however, is unclear. For some regions an increase in precipitation may lead to an increase in snow fall over the winter, and thus to higher snow loads even in a warmer climate. The annual maximum snow water equivalents available from an ensemble of regional climate projections representing the three emission scenarios, RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, were used to project how the snow load will change in northern Europe until the end of the century. The variability between the different models is studied by analyzing results for individual cities as well as the overall regional variation. The results show that the spatial difference is large, where the mountainous and colder areas may experience an increase in extreme snow loads in the future for all climate scenarios, while the warmer parts of the region may have a significant decrease. The study shows that it is possible to project future snow loads with reasonable accuracy. The variability is still large, though, and must be considered when using climate projections for structural design.