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Mortality burden attributable to long-term ambient PM2.5 exposure in China: using novel exposure-response functions with multiple exposure windows
Abstract Background Exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) increases the mortality burden. Exposure windows and exposure-response functions (ERFs) are two critical components of accurate mortality burden estimation. Objective We explored the potential heterogeneity of exposure windows and reassessed the PM2.5-attributable mortality burden in China with novel ERFs. Method Based on 1 km × 1 km satellite-retrieved PM2.5 and population data, provincial-level age structure, and mortality data, we applied the recent Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM) with multiple exposure windows (1-year to 6-year during 2010–2015) to estimate age-specific PM2.5-attributable mortality burden in China in 2015. Then, the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Integrated Exposure-Response (IER) and Log-Linear (LL) models were exercised for comparative analysis. Result The PM2.5-attributable mortality was the highest with a 3-year average exposure window (2013–2015). The GEMM-based total premature deaths were 133.2% [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 93.6%–226.4%] and 14.2% (95% CI: 13.9%–16.8%) higher than the values obtained from the GBD2017 IER model and LL model, respectively. The national mortality burden attributable to PM2.5 was 1.94 (95% CI: 1.63–2.23) million, of which IHD and stroke were the leading causes, accounting for 27.3% and 23.0% of the total burden respectively. The mortality burden for the people over 80 years old was 0.62 (95%CI: 0.52–0.71) million, accounting for 31.9% (95%CI: 31.8%–32.0%) of the total burden. Conclusions This study demonstrates the potential heterogeneity of PM2.5-attributable mortality burden associated with different exposure windows, especially when there are spatial-temporal variations in PM2.5 concentrations. The model comparison results suggest that the health impacts attributed to long-term PM2.5 exposure in China may be much higher than previously estimated. The population over 80 years old has the highest PM2.5-attributable mortality burden. These findings have important policy implications for addressing air pollution at the provincial and national level in China.
Highlights First explore the potential heterogeneity of exposure windows on mortality burden. The PM2.5-related mortality burden in China was reassessed using the novel GEMM. Mortality burden from PM2.5 was estimated as 1.94 million in China in 2015. GEMM-based excess deaths were 133.2% and 14.2% higher than that of IER and LL. The population over 80 years old has the most serious mortality burden.
Mortality burden attributable to long-term ambient PM2.5 exposure in China: using novel exposure-response functions with multiple exposure windows
Abstract Background Exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) increases the mortality burden. Exposure windows and exposure-response functions (ERFs) are two critical components of accurate mortality burden estimation. Objective We explored the potential heterogeneity of exposure windows and reassessed the PM2.5-attributable mortality burden in China with novel ERFs. Method Based on 1 km × 1 km satellite-retrieved PM2.5 and population data, provincial-level age structure, and mortality data, we applied the recent Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM) with multiple exposure windows (1-year to 6-year during 2010–2015) to estimate age-specific PM2.5-attributable mortality burden in China in 2015. Then, the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Integrated Exposure-Response (IER) and Log-Linear (LL) models were exercised for comparative analysis. Result The PM2.5-attributable mortality was the highest with a 3-year average exposure window (2013–2015). The GEMM-based total premature deaths were 133.2% [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 93.6%–226.4%] and 14.2% (95% CI: 13.9%–16.8%) higher than the values obtained from the GBD2017 IER model and LL model, respectively. The national mortality burden attributable to PM2.5 was 1.94 (95% CI: 1.63–2.23) million, of which IHD and stroke were the leading causes, accounting for 27.3% and 23.0% of the total burden respectively. The mortality burden for the people over 80 years old was 0.62 (95%CI: 0.52–0.71) million, accounting for 31.9% (95%CI: 31.8%–32.0%) of the total burden. Conclusions This study demonstrates the potential heterogeneity of PM2.5-attributable mortality burden associated with different exposure windows, especially when there are spatial-temporal variations in PM2.5 concentrations. The model comparison results suggest that the health impacts attributed to long-term PM2.5 exposure in China may be much higher than previously estimated. The population over 80 years old has the highest PM2.5-attributable mortality burden. These findings have important policy implications for addressing air pollution at the provincial and national level in China.
Highlights First explore the potential heterogeneity of exposure windows on mortality burden. The PM2.5-related mortality burden in China was reassessed using the novel GEMM. Mortality burden from PM2.5 was estimated as 1.94 million in China in 2015. GEMM-based excess deaths were 133.2% and 14.2% higher than that of IER and LL. The population over 80 years old has the most serious mortality burden.
Mortality burden attributable to long-term ambient PM2.5 exposure in China: using novel exposure-response functions with multiple exposure windows
Wu, Wenjing (author) / Yao, Minghong (author) / Yang, Xiaocui (author) / Hopke, Philip K. (author) / Choi, Hyunok (author) / Qiao, Xue (author) / Zhao, Xing (author) / Zhang, Juying (author)
Atmospheric Environment ; 246
2020-11-23
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
| Elsevier | 2023