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A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Threats of unplanned movement of migrant workers for sudden spurt of COVID-19 pandemic in India
Abstract People migrate from one region to another, attracted by many push and pull factors to develop their standard of living. The unplanned movement during the nationwide lockdown period of COVID-19 pandemic has become a painful threat to migrant workers in India and abroad. The central and state governments have jointly arranged trains to repatriate these migrants to their own homeland. However, the lack of proper planning, infrastructure and precautions has increased the spread of positive cases compared to the pre-return period. Thus, to show the previous and present positive cases migrants, we selected AR (Auto Regressive) and MA (Moving Average) models that finally put together and established the ARIMA model to estimate the increase in the number of patients affected (Average 72%) in those states (Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal and Odisha) following the start of the SHRAMIK special train. So this situation causes rapid, drastic changes to become more positive from the negative. The government should therefore implement region wise policy strategy in the various sectors to ensure that every human being has proper shelter, food, medicine and digital contact surveillance technology (Aragyau Shetu) so that the rate of decline in these states will differ in the coming days.
Highlights Unplanned movement of migrant workers may increase the COVID-19 cases in India. 72% of growing new COVID-19 cases contributed from the migrant workers movement. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model used for the forecasting. The total COVID-19 cases will be increase about 65 lakhs by end of the 2020. The total number of deaths will reach about 1.5 lakhs on 31 Dec, 2020.
Threats of unplanned movement of migrant workers for sudden spurt of COVID-19 pandemic in India
Abstract People migrate from one region to another, attracted by many push and pull factors to develop their standard of living. The unplanned movement during the nationwide lockdown period of COVID-19 pandemic has become a painful threat to migrant workers in India and abroad. The central and state governments have jointly arranged trains to repatriate these migrants to their own homeland. However, the lack of proper planning, infrastructure and precautions has increased the spread of positive cases compared to the pre-return period. Thus, to show the previous and present positive cases migrants, we selected AR (Auto Regressive) and MA (Moving Average) models that finally put together and established the ARIMA model to estimate the increase in the number of patients affected (Average 72%) in those states (Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal and Odisha) following the start of the SHRAMIK special train. So this situation causes rapid, drastic changes to become more positive from the negative. The government should therefore implement region wise policy strategy in the various sectors to ensure that every human being has proper shelter, food, medicine and digital contact surveillance technology (Aragyau Shetu) so that the rate of decline in these states will differ in the coming days.
Highlights Unplanned movement of migrant workers may increase the COVID-19 cases in India. 72% of growing new COVID-19 cases contributed from the migrant workers movement. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model used for the forecasting. The total COVID-19 cases will be increase about 65 lakhs by end of the 2020. The total number of deaths will reach about 1.5 lakhs on 31 Dec, 2020.
Threats of unplanned movement of migrant workers for sudden spurt of COVID-19 pandemic in India
Pal, Subodh Chandra (author) / Saha, Asish (author) / Chowdhuri, Indrajit (author) / Roy, Paramita (author) / Chakrabortty, Rabin (author) / Shit, Manisa (author)
Cities ; 109
2020-11-15
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
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