A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Combining a land parcel cellular automata (LP-CA) model with participatory approaches in the simulation of disruptive future scenarios of urban land use change
Abstract Urban development is a process that becomes increasingly complex as the city evolves and in which unexpected events can happen which may alter the envisaged trend over time. To anticipate and examine the sudden emergence of processes that are difficult to predict over long-term future timelines, prospective methodologies are required to manage and implement disruptive narrative storylines in future scenario planning. In this research, a method that combines Land Parcel Cellular Automata (LP-CA) and participatory approaches was developed in order to generate land use trajectories that are spatially consistent with disruptive narrative storylines. The urban-industrial corridor of Henares (Spain), which has undergone important urban transformations in recent decades, was chosen as the study area to test the model. In a preliminary validation of the LP-CA model, a Figure of Merit (FOM) value of 0.2817 indicated satisfactory performance. The results demonstrated the usefulness of the participatory scenario-building and the workshop in supporting the configuration of the model parameters and the spatial representation of complex urban dynamics. In conclusion, this methodology can be used to generate simulations of urban land use change in disruptive future scenarios and to spatially observe the propagation of the uncertainty associated with future events across different urban land uses.
Highlights Prospective methods are required for effective scenario planning process. Disruptive thinking must be part of the envisioning process to encompass the unexpected in the urban evolution of cities. Combining modelling with participatory approaches is essential to simulate disruptive future scenarios. Public participation helps to generate more appropriate inputs for CA-based models. The use of the LP-CA model provides realistic results in the spatial configuration of urban land uses.
Combining a land parcel cellular automata (LP-CA) model with participatory approaches in the simulation of disruptive future scenarios of urban land use change
Abstract Urban development is a process that becomes increasingly complex as the city evolves and in which unexpected events can happen which may alter the envisaged trend over time. To anticipate and examine the sudden emergence of processes that are difficult to predict over long-term future timelines, prospective methodologies are required to manage and implement disruptive narrative storylines in future scenario planning. In this research, a method that combines Land Parcel Cellular Automata (LP-CA) and participatory approaches was developed in order to generate land use trajectories that are spatially consistent with disruptive narrative storylines. The urban-industrial corridor of Henares (Spain), which has undergone important urban transformations in recent decades, was chosen as the study area to test the model. In a preliminary validation of the LP-CA model, a Figure of Merit (FOM) value of 0.2817 indicated satisfactory performance. The results demonstrated the usefulness of the participatory scenario-building and the workshop in supporting the configuration of the model parameters and the spatial representation of complex urban dynamics. In conclusion, this methodology can be used to generate simulations of urban land use change in disruptive future scenarios and to spatially observe the propagation of the uncertainty associated with future events across different urban land uses.
Highlights Prospective methods are required for effective scenario planning process. Disruptive thinking must be part of the envisioning process to encompass the unexpected in the urban evolution of cities. Combining modelling with participatory approaches is essential to simulate disruptive future scenarios. Public participation helps to generate more appropriate inputs for CA-based models. The use of the LP-CA model provides realistic results in the spatial configuration of urban land uses.
Combining a land parcel cellular automata (LP-CA) model with participatory approaches in the simulation of disruptive future scenarios of urban land use change
Molinero-Parejo, Ramón (author) / Aguilera-Benavente, Francisco (author) / Gómez-Delgado, Montserrat (author) / Shurupov, Nikolai (author)
2022-10-06
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
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