Changes in US background ozone due to global anthropogenic emissions from 1970 to 2020: Fid-Bau Portal

Changes in US background ozone due to global anthropogenic emissions from 1970 to 2020

Nopmongcol, Uarporn / Jung, Jaegun / Kumar, Naresh / Yarwood, Greg

Abstract Estimates of North American and US Background (NAB and USB) ozone (O3) are critical in setting and implementing the US National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and therefore influence population exposure to O3 across the US. NAB is defined as the O3 concentration in the absence of anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions from North America whereas USB excludes anthropogenic emissions inside the US alone. NAB and USB vary geographically and with time of year. Analyses of O3 trends at rural locations near the west coast suggest that background O3 is rising in response to increasing non-US emissions. As the O3 NAAQS is lowered, rising background O3 would make attaining the NAAQS more difficult. Most studies of changing US background O3 have inferred trends from observations whereas air quality management decisions tend to rely on models. Thus, it is important that the models used to develop O3 management strategies are able to represent the changes in background O3 in order to increase confidence that air quality management strategies will succeed. We focus on how changing global emissions influence USB rather than the effects of inter-annual meteorological variation or long-term climate change. We use a regional model (CAMx) nested within a global model (GEOS-Chem) to refine our grid resolution over high terrain in the western US and near US borders where USB tends to be higher. We determine USB from CAMx simulations that exclude US anthropogenic emissions. Over five decades, from 1970 to 2020, estimated USB for the annual fourth highest maximum daily 8-h average O3 (H4MDA8) in the western US increased from mostly in the range of 40–55 ppb to 45–60 ppb, but remained below 45 ppb in the eastern US. USB increases in the southwestern US are consistent with rising emissions in Asia and Mexico. USB decreases in the northeast US after 1990 follow declining Canadian emissions. Our results show that the USB increases both for the top 30 MDA8 days and the H4MDA8 (the former at a faster rate in most areas). Our USB increases in the western US are lower by about a factor of four than trends inferred from analyses of rural ozone near the west coast which is consistent with meteorology also influencing the observed ozone trends. Comparing H4MDA8 NAB and USB for 2020 shows that contributions from neighbouring countries can exceed 4 ppb near the Canadian border and 2 ppb near the Mexican border.

Highlights • CAMx regional model used to calculate US background ozone (USB) over five decades. • Estimated contributions from neighboring countries in 2020 exceed 4 ppb near the Canadian border. • Summer H4MDA8 USB across major 22 cities increased by 0.8 ppb/decade from 1970 to 2000. • Increasing USB in the western US for all MDA8 metrics examined; top 30 MDA8 rose faster than H4MDA8 USB in most cities. • Declining H4MDA8 USB after 2000 in the northeast due to reduction of Canadian emissions.