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Determinants of air cargo traffic in California
Highlights Concentrations of service and manufacturing employment impact the volume of outbound air cargo. Total (domestic) air cargo traffic grows faster than (proportionally to) population. Wages play a significant role in determining both total and domestic air cargo movement. 80% of air cargo traffic is diverted away from a small city located within 100 miles of a large one. 2010–2040 forecasts indicate total air cargo traffic will grow at an average rate of 5.9% per year.
Abstract Studies on the economic impacts of air cargo traffic have been gaining traction in recent years. The slowed growth of air cargo traffic at California’s airports, however, has raised pressing questions about the determinants of air cargo traffic. Specifically, it would be useful to know how California’s air cargo traffic is affected by urban economic characteristics. Accordingly, this study estimates the socioeconomic determinants of air cargo traffic across cities in California. We construct a 7-year panel (2003–2009) using quarterly employment, wage, population, and traffic data for metro areas in the state. Our results reveal that the concentrations of both service and manufacturing employment impact the volume of outbound air cargo. Total air cargo traffic is found to grow faster than population, while the corresponding domestic traffic grows less than proportionally to city size. Wages play a significant role in determining both total and domestic air cargo movement. We provide point estimates for traffic diversion between cities, showing that 80% of air cargo traffic is diverted away from a small city located within 100 miles of a large one. Using socioeconomic and demographic forecasts prepared for California’s Department of Transportation, we also forecast metro-level total and domestic air cargo tonnage for the years 2010–2040. Our forecasts for this period indicate that California’s total (domestic) air cargo traffic will increase at an average rate of 5.9% (4.4%) per year.
Determinants of air cargo traffic in California
Highlights Concentrations of service and manufacturing employment impact the volume of outbound air cargo. Total (domestic) air cargo traffic grows faster than (proportionally to) population. Wages play a significant role in determining both total and domestic air cargo movement. 80% of air cargo traffic is diverted away from a small city located within 100 miles of a large one. 2010–2040 forecasts indicate total air cargo traffic will grow at an average rate of 5.9% per year.
Abstract Studies on the economic impacts of air cargo traffic have been gaining traction in recent years. The slowed growth of air cargo traffic at California’s airports, however, has raised pressing questions about the determinants of air cargo traffic. Specifically, it would be useful to know how California’s air cargo traffic is affected by urban economic characteristics. Accordingly, this study estimates the socioeconomic determinants of air cargo traffic across cities in California. We construct a 7-year panel (2003–2009) using quarterly employment, wage, population, and traffic data for metro areas in the state. Our results reveal that the concentrations of both service and manufacturing employment impact the volume of outbound air cargo. Total air cargo traffic is found to grow faster than population, while the corresponding domestic traffic grows less than proportionally to city size. Wages play a significant role in determining both total and domestic air cargo movement. We provide point estimates for traffic diversion between cities, showing that 80% of air cargo traffic is diverted away from a small city located within 100 miles of a large one. Using socioeconomic and demographic forecasts prepared for California’s Department of Transportation, we also forecast metro-level total and domestic air cargo tonnage for the years 2010–2040. Our forecasts for this period indicate that California’s total (domestic) air cargo traffic will increase at an average rate of 5.9% (4.4%) per year.
Determinants of air cargo traffic in California
Lakew, Paulos Ashebir (author) / Tok, Yeow Chern Andre (author)
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice ; 80 ; 134-150
2015-07-06
17 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
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