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A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Current and future burdens of heat-related dementia hospital admissions in England
Graphical abstract Display Omitted
Highlights A 4.5% increase in risk of dementia admission per 1°C increase above 17°C. Emergency admissions may increase by 300% in 2040 under high emissions scenario. Identifying people with dementia as high-risk population over summer is advocated.
Abstract Introduction The impacts of a changing climate on current and future dementia burdens have not been widely explored. Methods Time-series negative binomial regression analysis was used to assess acute associations between daily ambient temperature and counts of emergency admissions for dementia in each Government region of England, adjusting for season and day-of-week. Using the latest climate and dementia projections data, we then estimate future heat-related dementia burdens under a high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), where global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to rise, and a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6), where GHG emissions are sizeably reduced under a strong global mitigation policy. Results A raised risk associated with high temperatures was observed in all regions. Nationally, a 4.5% (95% Confidence interval (CI) 2.9%–6.1%) increase in risk of dementia admission was observed for every 1 °C increase in temperature above 17 °C associated with current climate. Under a high emissions scenario, heat-related admissions are projected to increase by almost 300% by 2040 compared to baseline levels. Conclusions People living with dementia should be considered a high-risk group during hot weather. Our results support arguments for more stringent climate change mitigation policies.
Current and future burdens of heat-related dementia hospital admissions in England
Graphical abstract Display Omitted
Highlights A 4.5% increase in risk of dementia admission per 1°C increase above 17°C. Emergency admissions may increase by 300% in 2040 under high emissions scenario. Identifying people with dementia as high-risk population over summer is advocated.
Abstract Introduction The impacts of a changing climate on current and future dementia burdens have not been widely explored. Methods Time-series negative binomial regression analysis was used to assess acute associations between daily ambient temperature and counts of emergency admissions for dementia in each Government region of England, adjusting for season and day-of-week. Using the latest climate and dementia projections data, we then estimate future heat-related dementia burdens under a high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), where global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to rise, and a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6), where GHG emissions are sizeably reduced under a strong global mitigation policy. Results A raised risk associated with high temperatures was observed in all regions. Nationally, a 4.5% (95% Confidence interval (CI) 2.9%–6.1%) increase in risk of dementia admission was observed for every 1 °C increase in temperature above 17 °C associated with current climate. Under a high emissions scenario, heat-related admissions are projected to increase by almost 300% by 2040 compared to baseline levels. Conclusions People living with dementia should be considered a high-risk group during hot weather. Our results support arguments for more stringent climate change mitigation policies.
Current and future burdens of heat-related dementia hospital admissions in England
Gong, Jessica (author) / Part, Cherie (author) / Hajat, Shakoor (author)
2021-12-03
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
Ambient temperature , Climate change , Dementia , Hospital admission , Time series , CI , Confidence Interval , CMIP5 , Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 5th Assessment Report , COP26 , 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties , ELSA , English Longitudinal Study of Ageing , GHG , Greenhouse Gas , HadCET , Hadley Centre Central England Temperature , ICD , International Classification of Diseases , IPCC , Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , NHS , National Health Service , PLWD , People Living with Dementia , PPE , Perturbed Physics Ensemble , RCP , Representative Concentration Pathway , T<inf>ma</inf> , Temperature of minimal admissions , UKCP , UK Climate Projections
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