On including travel time reliability of road traffic in appraisal: Fid-Bau Portal

On including travel time reliability of road traffic in appraisal

de Jong, Gerard C. / Bliemer, Michiel C.J.

Highlights • Discussion on the most appropriate definition of reliability for use in CBA. • Outcomes from international expert interviews on reliability. • Short review on empirical outcomes for the value of reliability. • Review of the international literature on travel time reliability forecasting models. • Practical recommendations for national and regional authorities and modellers.

Abstract In many countries, decision-making on proposals for national or regional infrastructure projects in passenger and freight transport includes carrying out a cost–benefit analysis for these projects. Reductions in travel times are usually a key benefit. However, if a project also reduces the variability of travel time, travellers, freight operators and shippers will enjoy additional benefits, the ‘reliability benefits’. Until now, these benefits are usually not included in the cost–benefit analysis. To include reliability of travel or transport time in the cost–benefit analysis of infrastructure projects not only monetary values of reliability, but also reliability forecasting models are needed. As a result of an extensive feasibility study carried out for the German Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development this paper aims to provide a literature overview and outcomes of an expert panel on how best to calculate and monetise reliability benefits, synthesised into recommendations for implementing travel time reliability into existing transport models in the short, medium, and long term. The paper focuses on road transport, which has also been the topic for most of the available literature on modelling and valuing transport time reliability.