Space heating preferences in households: Nested logit model approach in Turkey: Fid-Bau Portal

Space heating preferences in households: Nested logit model approach in Turkey

Karaaslan, Kübranur Çebi / Algül, Yahya / Karaaslan, Abdulkerim

Highlights • In the study, nested logit regression was used. • As income and education levels increase preferences of transitional and modern fuel types, in comparison to traditional fuels, increase. • Household size increases preferences of modern and generally more expensive fuel types decrease. • The age of the dwelling decreases the likelihood of modern and transitional fuel choice is increases.

Abstract Turkish economy with its robust growth performance over the last few decades has brought on the agenda the energy deficit problem together with ever-rising foreign account deficits. Since almost 80% of the energy demand is met through imported fossil resources. In this perspective, household fuel choice is crucial, since it makes up a substantial part of total energy demand. Furthermore, traditional fuels are important sources of indoor air pollution and related health hazards. For this reason, in this study the cross-sectional data obtained from the Household Budget Survey conducted by the Turkish Statistical Institute, containing a total of 47,573 households, is used. Multinomial Probit and Nested Logit models are utilized to determine the factors affecting Turkish household heating preferences. According to estimations, dwelling characteristics such as type, age, size and heating system of dwellings are generally found to be an important predictors of fuel choice. Moreover, household characteristics, such as income, education level, spending and saving habits, household size, employment status, marital status, and credit card ownership are generally found to be statistically significant factors. Finally, it is suggested that government support is important for a smooth transition from traditional fuels to modern fuels.