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A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
An investigation of prediction errors in work trip mode choice models
Abstract This paper reports some analyses of predictive accuracy of disaggregate work trip mode choice models. The prediction error is separated into three components: model specification error, aggregation error, and transfer error. The main results are (1) the total forecasting errors can be very large, especially if the model transfers poorly; (2) poor transfer-ability was found between cities where the transit or shared ride markets are much different; (3) prediction from models having statistically different coefficients need not be much different and (4) the type of level-of-service data, i.e. manually coded or network based, used in model estimation has little influence on forecasting accuracy. These and other results are provisional for reasons discussed in the main text.
An investigation of prediction errors in work trip mode choice models
Abstract This paper reports some analyses of predictive accuracy of disaggregate work trip mode choice models. The prediction error is separated into three components: model specification error, aggregation error, and transfer error. The main results are (1) the total forecasting errors can be very large, especially if the model transfers poorly; (2) poor transfer-ability was found between cities where the transit or shared ride markets are much different; (3) prediction from models having statistically different coefficients need not be much different and (4) the type of level-of-service data, i.e. manually coded or network based, used in model estimation has little influence on forecasting accuracy. These and other results are provisional for reasons discussed in the main text.
An investigation of prediction errors in work trip mode choice models
Talvitie, Antti (author) / Dehghani, Youssef (author) / Anderson, Mark (author)
Transportation Research Part A: General ; 16 ; 395-402
1982-01-01
8 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
Analysis of Temporal Transferability of Disaggregate Work Trip Mode Choice Models
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