A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Rising housing prices and marriage delays in China: Evidence from the urban land transaction policy
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1918-9598
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1735-7535
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3428-983X
Abstract In recent years, the phenomenon of delayed age at first marriage and declining fertility in China has become increasingly prominent, and high housing prices may be one of the triggers. By exploiting the quasi-natural experiment of the urban land transaction policy (ULTP) since 2002 and using the nationally representative data from the China Labor-force Dynamic Survey (CLDS), we employed a difference-in-differences (DID) method to identify the causal effects of rising housing prices on marriage delays. The results show that rising housing prices from the ULTP significantly delayed the age of first marriage by 0.2280 years old, with males delaying by 0.4372 years old. In addition, we found that rising housing prices raised the cost of first marriage; instead, young people with houses have a younger age at first marriage. Furthermore, the marriage delay effect of rising housing prices is more pronounced for more educated females, males with more siblings, and individuals from large cities. Worse, the effect of delayed marriage caused by rising housing prices further depressed fertility intentions and reduced the actual fertility rate. These findings complemented to the research field on the impact of rising housing prices and provided some insights for refining real estate public policies.
Highlights Using the urban land transaction policy (ULTP) implemented since 2002 as a quasi-natural experiment. Rising housing prices significantly delayed the age at first marriage by increasing the cost of marriage. Young people with houses are more likely to get married and have a younger age at first marriage. Marriage delay effect was more pronounced for more educated females, males with more siblings, and those from large cities. Delayed marriage due to rising housing prices further depressed fertility intentions and reduced the actual fertility rate.
Rising housing prices and marriage delays in China: Evidence from the urban land transaction policy
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1918-9598
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1735-7535
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3428-983X
Abstract In recent years, the phenomenon of delayed age at first marriage and declining fertility in China has become increasingly prominent, and high housing prices may be one of the triggers. By exploiting the quasi-natural experiment of the urban land transaction policy (ULTP) since 2002 and using the nationally representative data from the China Labor-force Dynamic Survey (CLDS), we employed a difference-in-differences (DID) method to identify the causal effects of rising housing prices on marriage delays. The results show that rising housing prices from the ULTP significantly delayed the age of first marriage by 0.2280 years old, with males delaying by 0.4372 years old. In addition, we found that rising housing prices raised the cost of first marriage; instead, young people with houses have a younger age at first marriage. Furthermore, the marriage delay effect of rising housing prices is more pronounced for more educated females, males with more siblings, and individuals from large cities. Worse, the effect of delayed marriage caused by rising housing prices further depressed fertility intentions and reduced the actual fertility rate. These findings complemented to the research field on the impact of rising housing prices and provided some insights for refining real estate public policies.
Highlights Using the urban land transaction policy (ULTP) implemented since 2002 as a quasi-natural experiment. Rising housing prices significantly delayed the age at first marriage by increasing the cost of marriage. Young people with houses are more likely to get married and have a younger age at first marriage. Marriage delay effect was more pronounced for more educated females, males with more siblings, and those from large cities. Delayed marriage due to rising housing prices further depressed fertility intentions and reduced the actual fertility rate.
Rising housing prices and marriage delays in China: Evidence from the urban land transaction policy
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1918-9598
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1735-7535
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3428-983X
Abstract In recent years, the phenomenon of delayed age at first marriage and declining fertility in China has become increasingly prominent, and high housing prices may be one of the triggers. By exploiting the quasi-natural experiment of the urban land transaction policy (ULTP) since 2002 and using the nationally representative data from the China Labor-force Dynamic Survey (CLDS), we employed a difference-in-differences (DID) method to identify the causal effects of rising housing prices on marriage delays. The results show that rising housing prices from the ULTP significantly delayed the age of first marriage by 0.2280 years old, with males delaying by 0.4372 years old. In addition, we found that rising housing prices raised the cost of first marriage; instead, young people with houses have a younger age at first marriage. Furthermore, the marriage delay effect of rising housing prices is more pronounced for more educated females, males with more siblings, and individuals from large cities. Worse, the effect of delayed marriage caused by rising housing prices further depressed fertility intentions and reduced the actual fertility rate. These findings complemented to the research field on the impact of rising housing prices and provided some insights for refining real estate public policies.
Highlights Using the urban land transaction policy (ULTP) implemented since 2002 as a quasi-natural experiment. Rising housing prices significantly delayed the age at first marriage by increasing the cost of marriage. Young people with houses are more likely to get married and have a younger age at first marriage. Marriage delay effect was more pronounced for more educated females, males with more siblings, and those from large cities. Delayed marriage due to rising housing prices further depressed fertility intentions and reduced the actual fertility rate.
Rising housing prices and marriage delays in China: Evidence from the urban land transaction policy
Zhao, Chunkai (author) / Chen, Boou (author) / Li, Xing (author)
Cities ; 135
2023-01-15
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
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