Housing price prediction incorporating spatio-temporal dependency into machine learning algorithms: Fid-Bau Portal

Housing price prediction incorporating spatio-temporal dependency into machine learning algorithms

Soltani, Ali / Heydari, Mohammad / Aghaei, Fatemeh / Pettit, Christopher James

Abstract Conventional housing price prediction methods rarely consider the spatiotemporal non-stationary problem in a large data volumes. In this study, four machine learning (ML) models are used to explore the impacts of various features – i.e., property attributes and neighborhood quality - on housing price variations at different geographical scales. Using a 32-year (1984–2016) housing price dataset of Metropolitan Adelaide, Australia, this research relies on 428,000 sale transaction records and 38 explanatory variables. It is shown that non-linear tree-based models, such as Decision Tree, have perform better than linear models. In addition, ensemble machine learning techniques, such as Gradient-Boosting and Random Forest, are better at predicting future housing prices. A spatiotemporal lag (ST-lag) variable was added to improve the prediction accuracy of the models. The study demonstrates that ST-lag (or similar spatio-temporal indicator) can be a useful moderator of spatio-temporal effects in ML applications. This paper will serve as a catalyst for future research into the dynamics of the Australian property market, utilizing the benefits of cutting-edge technologies to develop models for business and property valuation at various geographical levels.

Highlights • Spatio-temporal non-stationary is significant in explanation of the variations in housing price; • A proposed spatiotemporal lag is incorporated to increase the accuracy of the models; • Non-linear tree-based models have better performance than the linear model. • Ensemble ML techniques are powerful methods to produce better predictive performance.