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K-model description of probabilistic long-range atmospheric transport in the Northern Hemisphere
AbstractPredictions obtained from a simple Eulerian K-model are compared to a full-year ensemble average of long-range transport and deposition data, obtained from a numerical weather prediction model coupled to a 3D Lagrangian dispersion model. Five release sites located in different climate regions in the Northern Hemisphere were investigated. In all cases, the K-model is found qualitatively to account for the gross structure of the mean deposition patterns, and as such, it is providing a simple means for a first qualitative description of site-specific, averaged long-range atmospheric dispersion and deposition. An embedded stochastic gamma model can be used to describe the large-scale spatial fluctuations around the mean values. The parameters of both the K-model and the stochastic gamma distribution model have been obtained through maximum likelihood estimation. For 1μm diameter aerosols, the effective deposition length is found to be of the order of 500km. We argue that the K-model may be used as a practical tool for qualitative probabilistic safety assessment, where it is suggested that climatological data of e.g. mean wind can be used to estimate the model parameters.
K-model description of probabilistic long-range atmospheric transport in the Northern Hemisphere
AbstractPredictions obtained from a simple Eulerian K-model are compared to a full-year ensemble average of long-range transport and deposition data, obtained from a numerical weather prediction model coupled to a 3D Lagrangian dispersion model. Five release sites located in different climate regions in the Northern Hemisphere were investigated. In all cases, the K-model is found qualitatively to account for the gross structure of the mean deposition patterns, and as such, it is providing a simple means for a first qualitative description of site-specific, averaged long-range atmospheric dispersion and deposition. An embedded stochastic gamma model can be used to describe the large-scale spatial fluctuations around the mean values. The parameters of both the K-model and the stochastic gamma distribution model have been obtained through maximum likelihood estimation. For 1μm diameter aerosols, the effective deposition length is found to be of the order of 500km. We argue that the K-model may be used as a practical tool for qualitative probabilistic safety assessment, where it is suggested that climatological data of e.g. mean wind can be used to estimate the model parameters.
K-model description of probabilistic long-range atmospheric transport in the Northern Hemisphere
Lauritzen, Bent (author) / Baklanov, Alexander (author) / Mahura, Alexander (author) / Mikkelsen, Torben (author) / Havskov Sørensen, Jens (author)
Atmospheric Environment ; 40 ; 4352-4369
2006-03-24
18 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
Numerical evaluation of the PCBs transport over the Northern Hemisphere
| Online Contents | 2004