Aerometric data analysis—time series analysis and forecast and an atmospheric smog diagram: Fid-Bau Portal

Aerometric data analysis—time series analysis and forecast and an atmospheric smog diagram

Merz, P.H. / Painter, L.J. / Ryason, P.R.

Abstract A time series analysis of air monitoring data for the downtown Los Angeles station has been used to forecast pollutant concentrations. Trends are thereby detectable. Hydrocarbon, total oxidant, and carbon monoxide are trending downward. Nitric oxide is trending upward. Sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide are behaving in a complex manner, and no forecast is possible at this time. These statements are based on analysis of the data to the end of 1969. Somewhat different results were obtained using the data to the end of 1967. This emphasizes the empirical, adaptive nature of the time series forecasting and the need for updating. A smog effect diagram was derived from the air monitoring results. From the regression equation and the standard deviations, mutually interconsistent air quality standards have been derived. A set of these is oxidant: 10 pphm; nitrogen oxides: 25 pphm; and nonmethane hydrocarbon 0.6 ppm C. If current trends persist, this work indicates the control program is having an effect in the anticipated direction. Emission standards appear to be consistent with the air quality standards on the basis of the analysis for this station. Data from other stations and other locales could also be productively analyzed by the methods used here.