A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Global future population exposure to heatwaves
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4434-1726
Highlights The first global projection of future population exposure to heatwave was conducted. Modified framework of exposure projection considering urban expansion was developed. Coastal and low-altitude cities in both rich and poor countries are most at risk. Climate contributes most to exposure, followed by its interaction with urbanization. The impact of future urban expansion on heatwave exposure was highlighted.
Abstract The increasing exposure to extreme heatwaves in urban areas from both climate change and the urban heat island (UHI) effect poses multiple threats and challenges to human society. Despite a growing number of studies focusing on extreme exposure, research advances are still limited in some aspects such as oversimplification of human exposure to heatwaves and neglect of perceived temperature as well as actual body comfort, resulting in unreliable and unrealistic estimates of future results. In addition, little research has performed comprehensive and fine-resolution global analyses in future scenarios. In this study, we present the first global fine-resolution projection of future changing urban population exposure to heatwaves by 2100 under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) considering urban expansion at global, regional, and national scales. Overall, global urban population exposure to heatwaves is rising under the four SSPs. Temperate and tropical zones predictably have the greatest exposure among all climate zones. Coastal cities are projected to have the greatest exposure, followed closely by cities at low altitudes. Middle-income countries have the lowest exposure and the lowest inequality of exposure among countries. Individual climate effects contributed the most (approximately 46.4%) to future changes in exposure, followed by the interactive effect between climate and urbanization (approximately 18.5%). Our results indicate that more attention needs to be paid to policy improvements and sustainable development planning of global coastal cities and some low-altitude cities, especially in low- and high-income countries. Meanwhile, this study also highlights the impact of continued future urban expansion on population exposure to heatwaves.
Global future population exposure to heatwaves
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4434-1726
Highlights The first global projection of future population exposure to heatwave was conducted. Modified framework of exposure projection considering urban expansion was developed. Coastal and low-altitude cities in both rich and poor countries are most at risk. Climate contributes most to exposure, followed by its interaction with urbanization. The impact of future urban expansion on heatwave exposure was highlighted.
Abstract The increasing exposure to extreme heatwaves in urban areas from both climate change and the urban heat island (UHI) effect poses multiple threats and challenges to human society. Despite a growing number of studies focusing on extreme exposure, research advances are still limited in some aspects such as oversimplification of human exposure to heatwaves and neglect of perceived temperature as well as actual body comfort, resulting in unreliable and unrealistic estimates of future results. In addition, little research has performed comprehensive and fine-resolution global analyses in future scenarios. In this study, we present the first global fine-resolution projection of future changing urban population exposure to heatwaves by 2100 under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) considering urban expansion at global, regional, and national scales. Overall, global urban population exposure to heatwaves is rising under the four SSPs. Temperate and tropical zones predictably have the greatest exposure among all climate zones. Coastal cities are projected to have the greatest exposure, followed closely by cities at low altitudes. Middle-income countries have the lowest exposure and the lowest inequality of exposure among countries. Individual climate effects contributed the most (approximately 46.4%) to future changes in exposure, followed by the interactive effect between climate and urbanization (approximately 18.5%). Our results indicate that more attention needs to be paid to policy improvements and sustainable development planning of global coastal cities and some low-altitude cities, especially in low- and high-income countries. Meanwhile, this study also highlights the impact of continued future urban expansion on population exposure to heatwaves.
Global future population exposure to heatwaves
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4434-1726
Highlights The first global projection of future population exposure to heatwave was conducted. Modified framework of exposure projection considering urban expansion was developed. Coastal and low-altitude cities in both rich and poor countries are most at risk. Climate contributes most to exposure, followed by its interaction with urbanization. The impact of future urban expansion on heatwave exposure was highlighted.
Abstract The increasing exposure to extreme heatwaves in urban areas from both climate change and the urban heat island (UHI) effect poses multiple threats and challenges to human society. Despite a growing number of studies focusing on extreme exposure, research advances are still limited in some aspects such as oversimplification of human exposure to heatwaves and neglect of perceived temperature as well as actual body comfort, resulting in unreliable and unrealistic estimates of future results. In addition, little research has performed comprehensive and fine-resolution global analyses in future scenarios. In this study, we present the first global fine-resolution projection of future changing urban population exposure to heatwaves by 2100 under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) considering urban expansion at global, regional, and national scales. Overall, global urban population exposure to heatwaves is rising under the four SSPs. Temperate and tropical zones predictably have the greatest exposure among all climate zones. Coastal cities are projected to have the greatest exposure, followed closely by cities at low altitudes. Middle-income countries have the lowest exposure and the lowest inequality of exposure among countries. Individual climate effects contributed the most (approximately 46.4%) to future changes in exposure, followed by the interactive effect between climate and urbanization (approximately 18.5%). Our results indicate that more attention needs to be paid to policy improvements and sustainable development planning of global coastal cities and some low-altitude cities, especially in low- and high-income countries. Meanwhile, this study also highlights the impact of continued future urban expansion on population exposure to heatwaves.
Global future population exposure to heatwaves
Wang, Yuwei (author) / Zhao, Na (author) / Yin, Xiaozhe (author) / Wu, Chaoyang (author) / Chen, Mingxing (author) / Jiao, Yimeng (author) / Yue, Tianxiang (author)
2023-06-15
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
Impact of Extreme Heatwaves on Population Exposure in China Due to Additional Warming
| DOAJ | 2022