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Changes and inter-model spread in 21st century scenarios for temperature and precipitation extremes as seen with the climate change index (CCI)
The amplitude and inter-model spread (IMS) of late 21st century changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in 21 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 models are analyzed using the recently introduced climate change index (CCI) and its components. Strong changes in extremes are found which are similar to those found using older data. Large IMS is found mostly in regions where the multi-model mean CCI values are large (tropics land, polar regions) or small (El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) region, North Atlantic Ocean). The two regions with large IMS in the tropics (ENSO region, Amazon basin) are mainly related to different model changes in precipitation extremes. In the polar regions the large IMS is linked to the IMS in both temperature and precipitation changes. Although the multi-model mean CCI values are average and the IMS is smallest in the subtropics, considerable change but also IMS is found as regards the changes of extremely dry events in this region. In this and other cases, a detailed analysis of the CCI components is important for getting a more complete picture of the changes and IMS of extreme temperature and precipitation events.
Changes and inter-model spread in 21st century scenarios for temperature and precipitation extremes as seen with the climate change index (CCI)
The amplitude and inter-model spread (IMS) of late 21st century changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in 21 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 models are analyzed using the recently introduced climate change index (CCI) and its components. Strong changes in extremes are found which are similar to those found using older data. Large IMS is found mostly in regions where the multi-model mean CCI values are large (tropics land, polar regions) or small (El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) region, North Atlantic Ocean). The two regions with large IMS in the tropics (ENSO region, Amazon basin) are mainly related to different model changes in precipitation extremes. In the polar regions the large IMS is linked to the IMS in both temperature and precipitation changes. Although the multi-model mean CCI values are average and the IMS is smallest in the subtropics, considerable change but also IMS is found as regards the changes of extremely dry events in this region. In this and other cases, a detailed analysis of the CCI components is important for getting a more complete picture of the changes and IMS of extreme temperature and precipitation events.
Changes and inter-model spread in 21st century scenarios for temperature and precipitation extremes as seen with the climate change index (CCI)
Changes and inter-model spread in 21st century scenarios for temperature and precipitation extremes as seen with the climate change index (CCI)
S C Scherrer (author) / M B Baettig (author)
Environmental Research Letters ; 3 ; 034005
2008-07-01
8 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
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