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Permafrost degradation and methane: low risk of biogeochemical climate-warming feedback
Climate change and permafrost thaw have been suggested to increase high latitude methane emissions that could potentially represent a strong feedback to the climate system. Using an integrated earth-system model framework, we examine the degradation of near-surface permafrost, temporal dynamics of inundation (lakes and wetlands) induced by hydro-climatic change, subsequent methane emission, and potential climate feedback. We find that increases in atmospheric CH[subscript 4] and its radiative forcing, which result from the thawed, inundated emission sources, are small, particularly when weighed against human emissions. The additional warming, across the range of climate policy and uncertainties in the climate-system response, would be no greater than 0.1 ° C by 2100. Further, for this temperature feedback to be doubled (to approximately 0.2 ° C) by 2100, at least a 25-fold increase in the methane emission that results from the estimated permafrost degradation would be required. Overall, this biogeochemical global climate-warming feedback is relatively small whether or not humans choose to constrain global emissions.
Permafrost degradation and methane: low risk of biogeochemical climate-warming feedback
Climate change and permafrost thaw have been suggested to increase high latitude methane emissions that could potentially represent a strong feedback to the climate system. Using an integrated earth-system model framework, we examine the degradation of near-surface permafrost, temporal dynamics of inundation (lakes and wetlands) induced by hydro-climatic change, subsequent methane emission, and potential climate feedback. We find that increases in atmospheric CH[subscript 4] and its radiative forcing, which result from the thawed, inundated emission sources, are small, particularly when weighed against human emissions. The additional warming, across the range of climate policy and uncertainties in the climate-system response, would be no greater than 0.1 ° C by 2100. Further, for this temperature feedback to be doubled (to approximately 0.2 ° C) by 2100, at least a 25-fold increase in the methane emission that results from the estimated permafrost degradation would be required. Overall, this biogeochemical global climate-warming feedback is relatively small whether or not humans choose to constrain global emissions.
Permafrost degradation and methane: low risk of biogeochemical climate-warming feedback
Gao, Xiang (author) / Anthony, Katey Walter (author) / Zhuang, Qianlai (author) / Kicklighter, David (author) / Schlosser, Adam (author) / Sokolov, Andrei P. (author)
2013
Gao, Xiang, C Adam Schlosser, Andrei Sokolov, Katey Walter Anthony, Qianlai Zhuang, and David Kicklighter. “Permafrost degradation and methane: low risk of biogeochemical climate-warming feedback.” Environmental Research Letters 8, no. 3 (September 1, 2013): 035014.
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
Permafrost degradation and methane: low risk of biogeochemical climate-warming feedback
| DOAJ | 2013
Permafrost degradation and methane: low risk of biogeochemical climate-warming feedback
| IOP Institute of Physics | 2013
CLIMATIC WARMING AND PERMAFROST
| British Library Conference Proceedings | 2001
Potential feedback of thawing permafrost to the global climate system through methane emission
| IOP Institute of Physics | 2007
PROBLEMS OF PERMAFROST ENGINEERING AS RELATED TO GLOBAL CLIMATE WARMING
| British Library Conference Proceedings | 2001