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Combining intersectoral flows and shift-share techniques: A hybrid regional forecasting model
Summary and conclusions Intersectoral flows analysis is a static technique. There is no dynamic or growth element. Shift-share analysis on the other hand is a growth oriented analytical tool with no capability for modelling the internal structure of a regional economy. It therefore seems useful to combine the shift-share and intersectoral flows approaches. The shift parameters provide a growth component for the final demand sectors of the intersectoral flows matrix. Externalities are incorporated into the model through the shift parameters which drive the final demand categories of the regional economy. This is deemed to be a fruitful approach at present because it can incorporate a variety of linear and non-linear externalities and is amenable to simulation. It also overcomes in theory some of the principal criticisms of shift-share. The economy, flexibility and potential rigour of this approach appears to us to provide the most likely operational approach to externalities in the immediate future.
Combining intersectoral flows and shift-share techniques: A hybrid regional forecasting model
Summary and conclusions Intersectoral flows analysis is a static technique. There is no dynamic or growth element. Shift-share analysis on the other hand is a growth oriented analytical tool with no capability for modelling the internal structure of a regional economy. It therefore seems useful to combine the shift-share and intersectoral flows approaches. The shift parameters provide a growth component for the final demand sectors of the intersectoral flows matrix. Externalities are incorporated into the model through the shift parameters which drive the final demand categories of the regional economy. This is deemed to be a fruitful approach at present because it can incorporate a variety of linear and non-linear externalities and is amenable to simulation. It also overcomes in theory some of the principal criticisms of shift-share. The economy, flexibility and potential rigour of this approach appears to us to provide the most likely operational approach to externalities in the immediate future.
Combining intersectoral flows and shift-share techniques: A hybrid regional forecasting model
Davis, H. Craig (author) / Goldberg, Michael A. (author)
1972
Article (Journal)
English
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