A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A dualistic model of urban growth
Abstract Economic base theory is alleged to have a number of shortcomings, both in concept and measurement, that considerably reduce its value as a predictive technique. Most empirical examinations of the theory have stopped short of suggesting ways in which the predictive ability of the theory could be improved. On the other hand, the sector or stages theory of economic growth, used to provide a theoretical explanation of regional growth, has not generally been applied to urban development, nor found embodiment in projective techniques. This study shows how economic base theory and sector theory interact in urban development, in what can be termed a dualistic approach to urban growth, so as to render improved predictions of such growth. This study examines urban economic base theory and analyzes the experience of 39 Canadian cities over the decade 1951–1961. These cities are used to test a model consistent with the hypothesis that the change in local employment over the decade is the result of dual forces. The first force, posited by traditional base theory, is a change in export workers. The second force, not explained by, nor consistent with, traditional base theory, is the secular change within the economy (increasing productivity in the basic relative to the local sector and increasing demand for the output of the local sector) that resulted in an increase in local employment over time, independent of changes in the base.
A dualistic model of urban growth
Abstract Economic base theory is alleged to have a number of shortcomings, both in concept and measurement, that considerably reduce its value as a predictive technique. Most empirical examinations of the theory have stopped short of suggesting ways in which the predictive ability of the theory could be improved. On the other hand, the sector or stages theory of economic growth, used to provide a theoretical explanation of regional growth, has not generally been applied to urban development, nor found embodiment in projective techniques. This study shows how economic base theory and sector theory interact in urban development, in what can be termed a dualistic approach to urban growth, so as to render improved predictions of such growth. This study examines urban economic base theory and analyzes the experience of 39 Canadian cities over the decade 1951–1961. These cities are used to test a model consistent with the hypothesis that the change in local employment over the decade is the result of dual forces. The first force, posited by traditional base theory, is a change in export workers. The second force, not explained by, nor consistent with, traditional base theory, is the secular change within the economy (increasing productivity in the basic relative to the local sector and increasing demand for the output of the local sector) that resulted in an increase in local employment over time, independent of changes in the base.
A dualistic model of urban growth
Harvey, Andrew S. (author)
1974
Article (Journal)
English
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