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Estimating exceedance frequencies of extreme river discharges using statistical methods and physically based approach
Summary In the Netherlands, the design discharge for the river Rhine may be exceeded on average once every 1250 years. Design discharges are currently estimated by fitting of probability distributions and extrapolation techniques. To this aim, reliable and homogeneous observations are needed. Unfortunately, time series of observed discharges are of a limited length. Consequently, different probability distributions lead to quite different extrapolated values, and the goodness-of-fit tests to select an appropriate probability distribution are usually inconclusive. The fact that the series of observations are short and physical knowledge about the catchment response is not included in this analysis, contributes to this inconclusiveness. Therefore, in the Netherlands, new methodologies are investigated. The new developments consist on one hand of a new statistical extrapolation method based on Bayesian approach, that takes account of statistical uncertainties. On the other hand, a methodology is being made to provide a better physical basis about the catchment response under extreme meteorological circumstances. This method consists of a statistical rainfall generator combined with hydrological and hydraulic models. Together with the current extrapolation method, these new developments are the subject of this paper.
Estimating exceedance frequencies of extreme river discharges using statistical methods and physically based approach
Summary In the Netherlands, the design discharge for the river Rhine may be exceeded on average once every 1250 years. Design discharges are currently estimated by fitting of probability distributions and extrapolation techniques. To this aim, reliable and homogeneous observations are needed. Unfortunately, time series of observed discharges are of a limited length. Consequently, different probability distributions lead to quite different extrapolated values, and the goodness-of-fit tests to select an appropriate probability distribution are usually inconclusive. The fact that the series of observations are short and physical knowledge about the catchment response is not included in this analysis, contributes to this inconclusiveness. Therefore, in the Netherlands, new methodologies are investigated. The new developments consist on one hand of a new statistical extrapolation method based on Bayesian approach, that takes account of statistical uncertainties. On the other hand, a methodology is being made to provide a better physical basis about the catchment response under extreme meteorological circumstances. This method consists of a statistical rainfall generator combined with hydrological and hydraulic models. Together with the current extrapolation method, these new developments are the subject of this paper.
Estimating exceedance frequencies of extreme river discharges using statistical methods and physically based approach
Chbab, E. H. (author) / Buiteveld, H. (author) / Diermanse, F. (author)
2006
Article (Journal)
English
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