A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Identifying water resources management strategies in adaptation to climate change under uncertainty
Abstract In this study, an integrated simulation-based allocation modeling system (ISAMS) is developed for identifying water resources management strategies in response to climate change. The ISAMS incorporates global climate models (GCMs), a semi-distributed land use-based runoff process (SLURP) model, and a multistage interval-stochastic programming (MISP) approach within a general framework. The ISAMS can not only handle uncertainties expressed as probability distributions and interval values but also reveal climate change impacts on water resources allocation under different projections of GCMs. The ISAMS is then applied to the Kaidu-kongque watershed with cold arid characteristics in the Tarim River Basin (the largest inland watershed basin in China) for demonstrating its efficiency. Results reveal that different climate change models corresponding to various projections (e.g., precipitation and temperature) would lead to changed water resources allocation patterns. Variations in water availability and demand due to uncertainties could result in different water allocation targets and shortages. A variety of decision alternatives about water allocations adaptive to climate change are generated under combinations of different global climate models and ecological water release plans. These findings indicate that understanding the uncertainties in water resources system, building adaptive methods for generating sustainable water allocation patterns, and taking actions for mitigating water shortage problems are key adaptation strategies responding to climate change.
Identifying water resources management strategies in adaptation to climate change under uncertainty
Abstract In this study, an integrated simulation-based allocation modeling system (ISAMS) is developed for identifying water resources management strategies in response to climate change. The ISAMS incorporates global climate models (GCMs), a semi-distributed land use-based runoff process (SLURP) model, and a multistage interval-stochastic programming (MISP) approach within a general framework. The ISAMS can not only handle uncertainties expressed as probability distributions and interval values but also reveal climate change impacts on water resources allocation under different projections of GCMs. The ISAMS is then applied to the Kaidu-kongque watershed with cold arid characteristics in the Tarim River Basin (the largest inland watershed basin in China) for demonstrating its efficiency. Results reveal that different climate change models corresponding to various projections (e.g., precipitation and temperature) would lead to changed water resources allocation patterns. Variations in water availability and demand due to uncertainties could result in different water allocation targets and shortages. A variety of decision alternatives about water allocations adaptive to climate change are generated under combinations of different global climate models and ecological water release plans. These findings indicate that understanding the uncertainties in water resources system, building adaptive methods for generating sustainable water allocation patterns, and taking actions for mitigating water shortage problems are key adaptation strategies responding to climate change.
Identifying water resources management strategies in adaptation to climate change under uncertainty
Sun, J. (author) / Li, Y. P. (author) / Zhuang, X. W. (author) / Jin, S.W. (author) / Huang, G. H. (author) / Feng, R. F. (author)
2017
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
BKL:
43.47
Globale Umweltprobleme
/
43.47$jGlobale Umweltprobleme
The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies—A Danish water management example
| Online Contents | 2012
Impact of Climate Change on China's Water Resources and Adaptation Strategies
| British Library Conference Proceedings | 2013
| HENRY – Federal Waterways Engineering and Research Institute (BAW) | 2012
Impact and Adaptation Strategies in Response to Climate Change on Taiwan's Water Resources
| British Library Conference Proceedings | 2017
Decision-Making under Uncertainty for Water Sustainability and Urban Climate Change Adaptation
| DOAJ | 2015