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Traffic modelling in cities – Validation of space syntax at an urban scale

Patterson, Joanne L.

To understand and facilitate modal shift to more sustainable modes of transport, there is a need to model accessibility and connectivity at an urban scale using data collection and modelling procedures that require less data and specialist input than traditional transport models. The research described in this paper uses spatial analysis modelling procedures based on space syntax to investigate the potential to model aggregate traffic flows at an urban scale. The research has demonstrated that space syntax modelling is an effective means of representing an urban scale motor traffic network; however, modifications to the original model were required to achieve a correlation between modelled and measured motor traffic flow comparable to other modelling procedures. Weighting methods were tested with ‘boundary weighting’ found to be effective at representing traffic crossing the boundary of an isolated urban sub-area, but not so effective at an urban scale. ‘Road weighting’ was found to be effective in improving model performance by representing traffic flows along routes according to a national classification scheme. The modelling approach has the potential to be extremely useful at an early planning stage to represent changes to flows across the network and to be useful for different modes.