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Grounding Risk Estimation in Inland Navigation with Monte Carlo Simulations and Squat Estimation
In inland ports, where access is done navigating along an estuary, river or artificial canal, the operation may be strongly conditioned by the tide (in case it has enough wide run) or the water level in the river. The variations in water level imply restrictions on the draft of the vessels that can access such ports.
Siport21 has been working for several years in ports of these characteristics, where there is no possibility to dredge the inland waterway. The alternative is to develop synchronization analysis tools, which allow identifying the “operational windows” and maximizing the draft of the vessels in transit operations. The result takes advantage of the tidal run by means of adequate planning, so that there is always enough underkeel clearance safety margin.
Grounding risk estimation is elaborated applying Monte Carlo method. A failure (grounding) function is defined, considering the propagation of the tidal wave (water level and current), ship speed along the waterway, wind conditions, squat, and other variables. Probability distributions of all variables involved are considered, so that thousands of random navigation conditions can be simulated. This allows to estimate the failure probability.
This methodology is applied to a practical case of a port that is carrying out actions to improve and optimize its operations. To do this, AIS data and tide data along the entire waterway, obtained from measurement sensors and a calibrated numerical prediction model, have been used.
Grounding Risk Estimation in Inland Navigation with Monte Carlo Simulations and Squat Estimation
In inland ports, where access is done navigating along an estuary, river or artificial canal, the operation may be strongly conditioned by the tide (in case it has enough wide run) or the water level in the river. The variations in water level imply restrictions on the draft of the vessels that can access such ports.
Siport21 has been working for several years in ports of these characteristics, where there is no possibility to dredge the inland waterway. The alternative is to develop synchronization analysis tools, which allow identifying the “operational windows” and maximizing the draft of the vessels in transit operations. The result takes advantage of the tidal run by means of adequate planning, so that there is always enough underkeel clearance safety margin.
Grounding risk estimation is elaborated applying Monte Carlo method. A failure (grounding) function is defined, considering the propagation of the tidal wave (water level and current), ship speed along the waterway, wind conditions, squat, and other variables. Probability distributions of all variables involved are considered, so that thousands of random navigation conditions can be simulated. This allows to estimate the failure probability.
This methodology is applied to a practical case of a port that is carrying out actions to improve and optimize its operations. To do this, AIS data and tide data along the entire waterway, obtained from measurement sensors and a calibrated numerical prediction model, have been used.
Grounding Risk Estimation in Inland Navigation with Monte Carlo Simulations and Squat Estimation
Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering
Li, Yun (editor) / Hu, Yaan (editor) / Rigo, Philippe (editor) / Lefler, Francisco Esteban (editor) / Zhao, Gensheng (editor) / Carmona, Juan Carlos (author) / Atienza, Raúl (author) / Redondo, Raúl (author) / Iribarren, José R. (author)
Smart Rivers ; 2022 ; Nanjing
2023-02-26
13 pages
Article/Chapter (Book)
Electronic Resource
English
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