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A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Importance Sampling in Life-Cycle Seismic Fragility and Risk Assessment of Aging Bridge Networks
Life-cycle structural reliability of deteriorating systems and multi-hazard risk assessment of aging infrastructure networks involve complex time-variant processes characterized by impactful uncertainties. Simulation methods are frequently the only viable tools to accurately estimate time-variant failure probabilities and risk metrics. However, simulation-based techniques are time-consuming and might be computationally inefficient and unfeasible in practice, particularly when analysis of large-scale systems are required to assess numerically sensitive performance indicators.
This paper proposes a novel computational approach based on Importance Sampling to efficiently estimate the time-variant seismic risk of aging road networks. In the proposed methodology, the seismic capacity of deteriorating structural systems is efficiently simulated to account for the time-variant model uncertainties typical of life-cycle structural reliability problems.
The possible improved trade-off in terms of sample size and estimate accuracy is tested in comparison with traditional Monte Carlo simulation approaches based on a practical application concerning the life-cycle seismic risk assessment of a road network with spatially-distributed deteriorating vulnerable bridges.
Importance Sampling in Life-Cycle Seismic Fragility and Risk Assessment of Aging Bridge Networks
Life-cycle structural reliability of deteriorating systems and multi-hazard risk assessment of aging infrastructure networks involve complex time-variant processes characterized by impactful uncertainties. Simulation methods are frequently the only viable tools to accurately estimate time-variant failure probabilities and risk metrics. However, simulation-based techniques are time-consuming and might be computationally inefficient and unfeasible in practice, particularly when analysis of large-scale systems are required to assess numerically sensitive performance indicators.
This paper proposes a novel computational approach based on Importance Sampling to efficiently estimate the time-variant seismic risk of aging road networks. In the proposed methodology, the seismic capacity of deteriorating structural systems is efficiently simulated to account for the time-variant model uncertainties typical of life-cycle structural reliability problems.
The possible improved trade-off in terms of sample size and estimate accuracy is tested in comparison with traditional Monte Carlo simulation approaches based on a practical application concerning the life-cycle seismic risk assessment of a road network with spatially-distributed deteriorating vulnerable bridges.
Importance Sampling in Life-Cycle Seismic Fragility and Risk Assessment of Aging Bridge Networks
Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering
Pellegrino, Carlo (editor) / Faleschini, Flora (editor) / Zanini, Mariano Angelo (editor) / Matos, José C. (editor) / Casas, Joan R. (editor) / Strauss, Alfred (editor) / Capacci, Luca (author) / Biondini, Fabio (author)
International Conference of the European Association on Quality Control of Bridges and Structures ; 2021 ; Padua, Italy
Proceedings of the 1st Conference of the European Association on Quality Control of Bridges and Structures ; Chapter: 118 ; 1035-1044
2021-12-12
10 pages
Article/Chapter (Book)
Electronic Resource
English
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