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Assessment of Precipitation Extremes in Northeast India Under CMIP5 Models
The northeastern region of India receives very high rainfall during the pre-monsoon and summer monsoon season, causing flood events, landslides, damage of crops, etc. The magnitude of these extreme events is increasing day by day. Therefore, the study of extreme precipitation has become very critical in predicting its consequences. Impacts of the changes in extreme events in the near as well as far future may be assessed by utilizing Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) global climate models (GCMs). However, the applicability of these models varies from region to region and is highly dependent on the characteristics of the region. Hence, correlation amongst the datasets should be studied before utilizing these climate models in planning and management-related works. In the present work, an attempt is made to assess the suitability of three global climate model (GCM) data from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) under the extreme carbon concentration scenario (RCP8.5) in capturing the extreme precipitations occurring in the northeastern region of India. For this purpose, 30-year observed precipitation data (1971–2000) of 2 different stations have been used. For assessing the extremes, 2 extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) have been utilized, viz. mean precipitation (MP), cumulative wet days (CWD), cumulative dry days (CDD), annual maximum 1-day precipitation (AMP1), annual maximum 5-day precipitation (AMP5), precipitation less than 1 mm (P1), precipitation less than 3 mm (P3), and precipitation more than 40 mm (P40). The results indicate fair correlations between the observed and climate model datasets. However, coming to a definite conclusion still needs further research by including more GCMs, which may give better results. Studies on annual rainfall over the region have shown no significant trends.
Assessment of Precipitation Extremes in Northeast India Under CMIP5 Models
The northeastern region of India receives very high rainfall during the pre-monsoon and summer monsoon season, causing flood events, landslides, damage of crops, etc. The magnitude of these extreme events is increasing day by day. Therefore, the study of extreme precipitation has become very critical in predicting its consequences. Impacts of the changes in extreme events in the near as well as far future may be assessed by utilizing Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) global climate models (GCMs). However, the applicability of these models varies from region to region and is highly dependent on the characteristics of the region. Hence, correlation amongst the datasets should be studied before utilizing these climate models in planning and management-related works. In the present work, an attempt is made to assess the suitability of three global climate model (GCM) data from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) under the extreme carbon concentration scenario (RCP8.5) in capturing the extreme precipitations occurring in the northeastern region of India. For this purpose, 30-year observed precipitation data (1971–2000) of 2 different stations have been used. For assessing the extremes, 2 extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) have been utilized, viz. mean precipitation (MP), cumulative wet days (CWD), cumulative dry days (CDD), annual maximum 1-day precipitation (AMP1), annual maximum 5-day precipitation (AMP5), precipitation less than 1 mm (P1), precipitation less than 3 mm (P3), and precipitation more than 40 mm (P40). The results indicate fair correlations between the observed and climate model datasets. However, coming to a definite conclusion still needs further research by including more GCMs, which may give better results. Studies on annual rainfall over the region have shown no significant trends.
Assessment of Precipitation Extremes in Northeast India Under CMIP5 Models
Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering
Timbadiya, P. V. (editor) / Singh, Vijay P. (editor) / Sharma, Priyank J. (editor) / Hazarika, Jayshree (author) / Phukan, Deepjyoti (author)
International Conference on Hydraulics, Water Resources and Coastal Engineering ; 2021
2023-05-24
9 pages
Article/Chapter (Book)
Electronic Resource
English
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