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Contingency Planning Using Expert Judgment in a Group Decision Support Center Environment
Abstract The techniques of gaming, decision analysis, and risk analysis are integrated with groupware technology to create an innovative approach to contingency planning. A hindcasting (backward looking) scenario exercise developed as a conventional group scenario exercise is adapted as in interactive exercise facilitated by the software tools of a Group Decision Support System (GDSS). Two GDSS exercises conducted with 25 experts in a process facilitated by a group decision support system are described. The scenario exercise is designed to facilitate the identification of the critical success factors that must be achieved and the problems that must be resolved in order to accomplish a successful oil spill response. The GDSS was used to enhance the group creativity and to support group consensus building. The experts’ ratings of the relative criticality and likelihood of achieving the critical success factors developed using the GDSS evaluation tools are presented and discussed. The use of influence diagramming techniques to structure the results of the hindcasting exercise is described. Experts may use this interactive computer model to assess the response readiness of their area of responsibility, to identify critical problems, or to assess the status of an emergency response.
Contingency Planning Using Expert Judgment in a Group Decision Support Center Environment
Abstract The techniques of gaming, decision analysis, and risk analysis are integrated with groupware technology to create an innovative approach to contingency planning. A hindcasting (backward looking) scenario exercise developed as a conventional group scenario exercise is adapted as in interactive exercise facilitated by the software tools of a Group Decision Support System (GDSS). Two GDSS exercises conducted with 25 experts in a process facilitated by a group decision support system are described. The scenario exercise is designed to facilitate the identification of the critical success factors that must be achieved and the problems that must be resolved in order to accomplish a successful oil spill response. The GDSS was used to enhance the group creativity and to support group consensus building. The experts’ ratings of the relative criticality and likelihood of achieving the critical success factors developed using the GDSS evaluation tools are presented and discussed. The use of influence diagramming techniques to structure the results of the hindcasting exercise is described. Experts may use this interactive computer model to assess the response readiness of their area of responsibility, to identify critical problems, or to assess the status of an emergency response.
Contingency Planning Using Expert Judgment in a Group Decision Support Center Environment
Harrald, John R. (author)
1995-01-01
16 pages
Article/Chapter (Book)
Electronic Resource
English
Contingency Planning , Critical Success Factor , Coast Guard , Influence Diagram , Group Decision Support System Engineering , Civil Engineering , Electronics and Microelectronics, Instrumentation , Engineering, general , Environmental Management , Data Structures, Cryptology and Information Theory , Quality Control, Reliability, Safety and Risk
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